The debate we didn’t need (LW)
The U.S. Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee is considering reclassifying potatoes, which are currently considered starchy vegetables, into the broader category of rice, other grains, and carbohydrates. The USDA and HHS are considering updates to the national diet guidelines for 2025. The guidelines shape nutrition advice and school meals.
The debate over national diet guidelines might seem trivial. However, there is a good argument that the USDA’s original food pyramid guideline recommending 6-11 daily servings of grains has contributed significantly to our current obesity and diabetes crisis. Nearly half of all U.S. potatoes are consumed through frozen products – mostly as french fries. There will be political considerations as there usually are in agricultural decisions, and eating habit changes happen over long durations.
North of the border recall (CELH)
Celsius is the most recent energy drink brand to be recalled in Canada, according to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA). The recall is due to the lack of bilingual labeling as well as the amount of caffeine. In August, the CFIA issued a public advisory saying it would enforce a limit of 180 milligrams of caffeine per serving in energy drinks. Celsius has 200 milligrams of caffeine per serving. The CFIA states that adults should not consume more than 400 milligrams of caffeine per day.
Other energy drinks have been recalled in Canada since the advisory, including 5-Hour Energy, Alani Nu, Red Bull, Monster, and Prime. The recall impacts unauthorized imports of the products into Canada. Celsius’ first major international market will be Canada in Q1. PepsiCo will assist with Celsius’ international expansion, but that is a tail opportunity. In the near term, gaining more shelf space and innovation will be the drivers of growth.
CAFFEINE AND ALCOHOL INTERDEPENDENCY (MNST, STZ)
Caffeine and alcohol both have numerous studies showing their adverse impact on sleep. However, there has been a lack of real-world studies on their combined impact on sleep. A study written by researchers at the University of Washington and UC Berkeley explored how alcohol and caffeine interdependency can impact financial trading. The study found that “when combined in the course of a given day, alcohol was found to partially mitigate the impairments of sleep quality associated with caffeine – a finding that ran contrary to one of the study’s hypotheses.” The study suggests that the sedating effects of alcohol and the psychoactive stimulant effects of caffeine obscure each other’s impact on sleep quantity and sleep quality, respectively. The authors speculated that this offsetting impact could explain the interdependency. Caffeine and alcohol, are half of the legal habit-forming drugs that make for great consumer staples businesses.
