NewsWire: 12/6/23
- #1: After two years of decline, U.S. life expectancy rises.
- Earlier this year, we predicted that U.S. life expectancy would rise in 2022 but remain below pre-pandemic levels. (See “U.S. Life Expectancy Declines.”) It turns out we were right. According to preliminary 2022 mortality data, U.S. life expectancy rose +1.1 years to 77.5.
- While this increase is significant, the figure is still -1.3 years below 2019 (78.8). We’re two years past the worst of the pandemic, and yet life expectancy is no better than it was in 2004, nearly 20 years ago.
- Life expectancy rose over the past year primarily due to the reduction in Covid-19 deaths (84.2% of the positive contribution). Other positive contributors were the decrease in mortality from heart disease (3.6%), unintentional injuries (2.6%), cancer (2.2%), and homicide (1.5%). Offsetting the decline were significant increases in mortality from influenza and pneumonia as well as perinatal conditions.
- By race, the YoY rise in life expectancy was most dramatic for Native Americans (+2.3), Hispanics (+2.2), and blacks (+1.6). And the increase was less pronounced for Asians (+1.0) and whites (+0.8). Why the difference? During the pandemic, Native Americans, Hispanics, and blacks experienced higher Covid-19 death rates. As the disease has become less deadly, these groups have regained more years of life.
- In 2022, the gap in life expectancy between women and men declined -0.4 years to 5.4. This marks the first decline in over a decade. While the reading is on par with 2019 (5.1), it’s significantly above the 2010 record low (4.4).
- All in all, this is a good news-bad news story. It’s certainly good news that life expectancy is no longer declining. But unlike many European countries, the U.S. still hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels. To paint a more detailed picture of American mortality, we will have to wait for the cause-specific and age data to be released. We will be sure to keep you updated.
- #2: Exemptions for routine childhood vaccinations climb to a record high.
- According to the CDC, the share of kindergartners whose parents opted them out of school vaccination requirements rose to 3.0% in the 2022-23 school year, up from 2.6% the previous year. This is the highest vaccine exemption rate ever recorded.
- The share of kindergarteners who met vaccination requirements stood at 93%, which was unchanged from the previous year. This share has slipped 2 percentage points since 2020. Prior to this decline, it had held at 95% for about a decade.
- In total, there are 10 states where more than 5% of kindergartners have been exempted from at least one of the four major vaccines (MMR, DTaP, polio, and chickenpox), with the highest share in Idaho at 12.1%. Next are Oregon (8.2%) and Utah (8.1%). Just three years ago, the number of states that met this criteria was just two.
- The overall 3% of kindergartners who have been exempted may seem tiny. But it only takes a small uptick to compromise herd immunity. Measles, for instance, has the highest R0 value of any viral disease: 12-18. This means that one person with measles, on average, infects 12 to 18 other people. 1 divided by 12 to 18 is 0.08 to 0.06, so herd immunity against measles requires 92% to 94% of the population to be vaccinated.
- In recent years, measles outbreaks have occurred in 31 states. The biggest recent outbreaks—85 people in Ohio in 2022 and 10 people in Idaho in 2023—have occurred in red-leaning states with below-average vaccination rates. Most cases involve unvaccinated individuals catching measles overseas, which leads to localized outbreaks among other unvaccinated individuals once they return home.
- Driving the growth in exemptions is an increase in vaccine skepticism among a wider swath of Americans, with the old guard of “crunchy” progressive parents and tight-knit religious communities joining forces with a new wave of Trumpists who claim that vaccine laws are per se a species of statist tyranny. With the number of measles cases and deaths also spiking around the globe, the chances of exposure are higher than they’ve been in decades.
- #3: International students return to U.S. colleges.
- According to a new report by Open Doors, 1.06M international students were enrolled at U.S. colleges in the 2022-23 academic year. That’s a +11.5% YoY rise and marks two consecutive years of increase. The number of international students in the United States, only -18K below the 2019 figure, has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels.
- While the number of students is now close to what it was pre-pandemic, their composition by national origin has shifted. China and India continue to make up the majority of international students. Last year, they accounted for 27.4% and 25.4% of students, respectively. But Chinese enrollment fell for the third year in a row and remains down -22.3% since 2019. In contrast, Indian enrollment has soared by +39.2% over the same period. Now Chinese students only outnumber Indians by 20.6K, or just 2.0 percentage points. (See “International Student Enrollment Shifts Towards India.”)
- What explains these diverging trends? Part of China’s decline can be explained by its strict pandemic policies. Remember, it wasn’t until December 2022 that the CCP ended its zero-Covid strategy. But the drop is also a result of souring U.S.-China relations, increasing competition from schools in other countries, and more attractive educational options in China itself.
- In contrast, India’s rise is primarily due to warming ties with the U.S. and a desire to enter America’s strong STEM programs. The majority of Indian international students are in just two fields (computer science and engineering), and they have their sights set on becoming the next Silicon Valley CEO.
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