Last week CMS reported Medicaid enrollment through August. YoY % change has decelerated to 0.11% while MoM change decelerated to -2.13%. Total enrollment for Medicaid only was reported as 83.026M. The amount is higher than our model which predicted 81.5M for August, a variance that has been fairly consistent.
Enrollment for CHIP remains nearly unchanged at 7M.
Our model suggests Medicaid enrollment dropped to 80M in September and about 79.5M in October. Adjusting for variance, the actual enrollment figures should be reported at about 81.5M for September and about 81M for October. October's enrollment would represent a decline of 7.2% from peak in April 2023. However, 81M beneficiaries would be 22.5M or 34% above enrollment in Jan 2020
In other words, assuming all other things are equal, there is still a long way to go to return to more normal levels unless, of course, there is not intention of returning to normal.
Let me know what you think.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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