We think the Running space is going to be a massive battleground in 2024. Yes, demand will be fine, but supply should outgrow demand by 2x. It's not just Nike, which we think is coming out with a major halo/commercial running platform in the Spring, but also Adidas (Short), Saucony, Asics, Brooks, and other specialty brands that are coming right at ONON and HOKA's jugular (both Best Idea Shorts). We're going to outline both DECK and ONON as Best Idea shorts, and the dynamics behind the running supply/demand equation, that should lead to outsized discounting, and margin pressure -- notable for names that are trading at nosebleed multiples (DECK, which is over-owned, and ONON), and should see inventory bloat and a sharp deceleration in Gross Profit dollars (and multiples). We'll also preview Nike's quarter, and outline the critical uncertainties around that name -- what people know, vs what they think they know, vs what we're likely to see. Nike just ended its FY2Q, which should be reported in 3-weeks time. Expect pin action on this quarter as the company sets up for Donohoe's last full year as CEO. Expect Position Monitor moves, and key checkpoints to watch for as the economics of the running space break down in an Olympic Year.
Call Details
Date/Time: Wednesday December 6th at 12:30 PM EDT
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