12/01/23 12:10 PM EST

Retail | Detailed Traffic Analysis 12/1

Brian McGough

Jeremy McLean

Arianna Petillo

Ryan Wilson

Takeaway: Near-Term Black Friday/Holiday Acceleration – Where to next? Earnings Look Ahead. GME Squeeze.

Industry: Aggregate YY Visits saw a 130bps acceleration last week from -6.6% to -5.3% YY—showing lower traffic than last year’s black-Friday/holiday event but improving relative rate of change. Datapoints on Black Friday have been largely positive, as everyone knows, but we think the margins associated with the sales will largely disappoint given how promotional we're seeing retailers behave to drive the incremental sale relative to prior years.

Notable Industry Callouts: Recreational & Sporting Goods Stores, Department Stores, and Electronic Stores all saw strong accelerations over last week, while Beauty & Spa, Home Improvement, Car Shops & Services, & Discount & Dollar Stores were flat to decelerating. Seems that discretionary demand was up on Black Friday deals given these divergent metrics (although Beauty & Spa remaining flat is surprising—but realistic given the overconsumption that we’ve seen).

Companies: Numbers below = YoY Rate of Change from week to week

Notable Accelerations: Duluth Trading Company +26%, Tiffany & Co. +19%, Academy Sports + Outdoors +17%, Tractor Supply Co. +16%, Bloomingdale’s Outlet +16%, Sephora +13%, Forever 21 +13%, J.Crew +13%, PGA Tour Superstore +13%, Coach +13%, Dick’s Sporting Goods +12%, Bluemercury +12%, Bass Pro Shops +11%, Gap +10%, Tilly’s +10%
Notable Decelerations: Lovesac -18% Kay Jewelers Outlet -13%, Topgolf -12%

Earnings Look Ahead: 2-Weeks Out

RH (RH--Best Idea Long): Consensus Sales Expectation: -12.9%

J. Jill (Jill): Consensus Sales Expectation: -2.9%

Designer Brands (DBI): Consensus Sales Expectation: -4.7%

Signet (SIG—Short Bias): Consensus Sales Expectation: -12.1%

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: Consensus Sales Expectation: +12.2%

Sportsman’s Warehouse (SPWH): Consensus Sales Expectation: -9.9%

Lululemon Athletica (LULU): Consensus Sales Expectation: +17.8%

Dollar General (DG): Consensus Sales Expectation: +1.9%

Key Winners & Losers:

Loser: Gamestop (GME). We took GME off our Best Idea Short List this past weekend and the stock has since squeezed ~30% higher without any positive news… Store traffic still looks awful, and we aren’t sure if that is going to change.