ON THE SENATE FLOOR: The Senate will continue to consider nominations, including the White House’s selection of Jack Lew to be Ambassador to Israel. The Senate will also continue to work through amendments and hopes to have a final vote on passage of the three-bill minibus that packages the Agriculture/FDA, Military Construction/VA, and Transportation/HUD appropriations bills.
IN THE HOUSE: Now that the House has elected a new Speaker and passed the Energy and Water appropriations bill, it is reconvening on Wednesday and turning its attention to privileged resolutions that would censure two Members and expel another. Last Thursday, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) introduced a resolution to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI). Rep. Becca Balint (D-VT) then gave notice that she was forcing a vote on a resolution she introduced in July to censure Greene. The House is now required to act within two legislative days on these resolutions, so votes could take place on Wednesday. Lawmakers could vote to table the resolutions, refer them to committee, or could take up-or-down votes on the resolutions themselves. Any of the options would require majority votes for approval.
Also last Thursday, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) gave notice that he was offering a privileged resolution to expel Rep. George Santos (R-NY). Approval of the resolution would require a two-thirds majority. When the House considered a similar resolution in May to expel Rep. Santos, it voted largely along party lines to refer the resolution to the Ethics Committee.
As for the House’s legislative schedule, Wednesday could also see votes on three appropriations bills – Legislative Branch, Interior/EPA, and Transportation/HUD. However, the House isn’t scheduled to begin legislative business until 2 p.m. on Wednesday, with votes starting at 6:30 p.m., so taking votes that day on all three spending bills (and the privileged resolutions) is an ambitious schedule.
This week the House is also planning to vote on legislation that would appropriate over $14 billion in aid to Israel. While there is bipartisan support for providing aid, Republicans are proposing to offset the cost by rescinding $14.3 billion in funding that has been approved for the IRS, a proposal that will not get buy-in from Congressional Democrats - setting up a tough vote in the House and a clash with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in the Senate who both currently support a combined Israel/Ukraine aid package without strings attached.
COMMITTEE ACTION:
Tuesday, October 31
- Senate Appropriations Committee Hearing: “A Review of the National Security Supplemental Request”
- Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Hearing: “Threats to the Homeland”
Wednesday, November 1
- Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Hearing: “The Science of Extreme Event Attribution: How Climate Change is Fueling Severe Weather Events”
- Senate Foreign Relations Closed Committee Hearing: “Ukraine Briefing”
Thursday, November 2
- House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets Hearing: “Unintended Consequences for U.S. Capital Markets and Investors”
- House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance Hearing: “The Factors Influencing the High Cost of Insurance for Consumers”
This week, court proceedings will be held in Colorado and Minnesota with potentially enormous consequences for the 2024 election. These courts will address whether former President Donald Trump is disqualified from serving as president under the Fourteenth Amendment of the Constitution.
Disqualification of Donald Trump would torpedo the consensus view of political pundits that he is the likely Republican nominee for the White House and create a wide-open race for the Republican nomination. A Donald Trump ouster could have spillover effects on President Joe Biden's presumptive Democratic nomination. A change at the top of the Republican ticket could also have ripple effects on Congressional races.
Of course, adjustments in election outcome expectations would foster speculation about major policy shifts in 2025, including the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, financial regulation, antitrust enforcement priorities, and other substantive areas.
A Colorado trial court began a one-week proceeding yesterday to determine whether Trump should be excluded from the Colorado ballot. Under the Fourteenth Amendment, a former officer of the United States cannot hold federal office if he engaged in insurrection against the Constitution. The Colorado court (Judge Sarah Wallace) will consider whether Trump is subject to the Fourteenth Amendment restrictions and whether his alleged conduct to obstruct the transfer of power to President Biden or encourage the Capitol riot of January 6, 2021 supports a finding of insurrection that would result in disqualification. The court order itemizing issues for trial can be accessed here.
We previously analyzed the strength of the Fourteenth Amendment case against Donald Trump (click here) and separately discussed the decisive legal issues in the case and the political fallout from a court ruling to disqualify Trump. To access the replay of the call, click here.
The Minnesota case will be argued this Thursday, November 2 in the State Supreme Court. This is probably the more critical case to watch because the appeal would go directly to the U.S. Supreme Court where the dispute inevitably must be resolved. The state cases, however, need to move on expedited tracks because ballots for early 2024 primaries must be printed in January. Similar Fourteenth Amendment cases in other states are likely.
Unlike the criminal and civil fraud cases against Donald Trump, the Fourteenth Amendment risk to Donald Trump's candidacy has generated limited media attention and public interest. The legal threat to Trump's candidacy, however, and the potential Republican free-for-all it could unleash are now ready for prime time.
