War has once again come to the Middle East following a surprise attack on Israel by Hamas emanating from the Gaza Strip. Hamas’s attack occurred on the 50th anniversary, nearly to the day, of the 1973 Yom Kippur War when Israel was similarly surprised by an Egyptian attack. As of Monday morning, the death toll has passed 1,100 people in Israel and Gaza — at least 11 Americans are among the dead —thousands more are wounded, and Hamas has taken over one hundred hostages.
Israel has pounded Gaza with airstrikes in response and secured villages in its territory that were temporarily held by Hamas. More than 123,000 people in Gaza are displaced by the violence and the Israel Defense Forces have called up 300,000 reservists to respond to the hostilities.
“We are embarking on a long and difficult war that was forced on us by a murderous Hamas attack,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday.
This conflict could be dire for diplomatic efforts in the region. Prior to the conflict, President Joe Biden had sought to broker an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia that would establish diplomatic ties. This was always going to be a very demanding diplomatic effort, but now it is much more difficult — and even more crucial.
This occurred despite Biden’s somewhat frosty relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS). The president criticized Netanyahu for undemocratic efforts to reform the Israeli judiciary and the harsh treatment of Palestinians. Biden also called Saudi Arabia a “pariah” during the 2020 presidential campaign. He threatened to release intelligence about MBS’s role in the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, expressed strong opposition to the Saudis’ war in Yemen, and threatened “consequences” when MBS allowed oil prices to rise ahead of the 2022 midterm election.
Despite these facts, the Administration’s effort to convince Saudi Arabia to enter the so-called Abraham Accords and establish formal diplomatic relations with Israel appeared to be gaining traction. This geopolitical earthquake would shake up the Middle East, illustrate America’s determination to maintain a regional leadership role and forestall growing Chinese influence. Washington had been surprised when China brokered an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two longtime enemies, earlier this year and realized Saudi Arabia is the PRC’s main energy supplier. An agreement, especially now, would be a major foreign policy achievement for Biden ahead of the 2024 elections. But success here means that the interests of the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel must be satisfied.
The view from Jerusalem
Israel would gain enormously by normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia: fewer security concerns, increased stability in the Middle East, a regional ally to further deter Iranian aggression, and expanded economic opportunities. An agreement would mean the leading military power in the region (Israel) would be tied to the leading economic power (Saudi Arabia).
But Israel would need to make concessions which are made more difficult due to the ongoing conflict. The U.S. has urged Netanyahu to halt his government’s ongoing judicial overhaul that has resulted in massive social unrest across Israel. Many American experts believe these efforts endanger long-term relations between Washington and Tel Aviv. But as the crisis began the White House immediately made clear its full support for Israel. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the redeployment of an aircraft carrier strike group and air assets closer to Israel, and the United States will provide Jerusalem with munitions and other military supplies. This will mean the demand on the U.S. defense industrial base will continue to skyrocket.
The political situation in Israel could also change rapidly, affecting negotiations. Already Netanyahu has discussed creating a government of national unity with Opposition Leader Yair Lapid and former Defense Minister Benny Gantz, who leads the National Unity Party following the attack. Netanyahu faces growing criticism for a catastrophic intelligence failure and what some Israelis view as a slow military response.
Biden as well as Saudi Arabia sought Israeli concessions on the Palestinian issue. These proposals would be opposed by Netanyahu’s right-wing allies and could prove politically problematic for Biden as the hostilities continue. The White House wanted Israel to return to a two-state solution that requires a freeze in new Jewish settlements, create areas for new Palestinian settlements, and expand Palestinian control over the Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem.
But concessions are unlikely while the fighting continues. If the war is short, Hamas suffers a resounding defeat, and evidence of the Israeli government’s massive intelligence failure is revealed, political conditions may change, however. In 1973, the Meir government was similarly surprised by an Egyptian attack. Though successful in battle, the government fell six months later in popular recrimination over the government’s intelligence failures. This set the stage for an eventual rapprochement with Egypt. But at this moment both Israeli and American officials do not expect the war to end quickly.
Squandering a historic opportunity could be equally threatening to the Israeli prime minister’s hold on power. Netanyahu would be in the uncomfortable position of rejecting an agreement that would likely be popular among voters, as it could help bring peace and forestall future Iranian aggression – Tehran is the shared enemy of Saudi Arabia and Israel and some suspect Iranian involvement in Hamas’s attack.
In the aftermath of the conflict, domestic pressure will likely rise against Netanyahu and force him to call for new elections, create the previously mentioned national unity government, or be ousted from a position that he appears determined to cling to. Time will tell.
The view from Riyadh
The Saudis want security guarantees equivalent to U.S. NATO partners, help with its civil nuclear energy program, and some concessions for the Palestinians in return for normalization. Riyadh’s greatest security concern remains Iran. The two countries are divided along religious lines and have long sought to be the region’s dominant power. The U.S.-Saudi relationship is crucial to Riyadh’s need to deter future threats emanating from Tehran and its broader goals in the Persian Gulf.
Consequently, common interests exist. The attack by Hamas underscores that both Israel and Saudi Arabia are embroiled in conflicts with Iranian proxies. Israel is at war with Hamas, which annually receives $100 million in military aid from Iran and immediately received verbal support from Tehran. Saudi Arabia is still in conflict with Houthi rebels in Yemen supported by Tehran as well as Iranian surrogates in Syria and Iraq. Experts speculate Iran encouraged this conflict to prevent an American-brokered normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Saudi Arabia was quick to denounce Hamas’s attack, but complexities remain. A Palestinian state has been a driving mission of the Arab world for years. Powerful older generations in Saudi Arabia, such as MBS’s father King Salman, are deeply invested in returning Israeli-held lands to the Palestinians. Perhaps unsurprisingly a Saudi Foreign Ministry statement foreshadowed increased diplomatic challenges. it blamed the violence on Israel’s “continued occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repetition of systemic provocations against its sanctities.”
MBS has previously said he was open to negotiating with Netanyahu’s right-wing government if the Palestinian issue was addressed. "If we have a breakthrough, reaching a deal that gives the Palestinians their needs and [that makes] the region calm, we've got to work with whoever's there," he said.
The White House must now find new ways to satisfy Saudi and Israeli interests. It is very unlikely Saudis will obtain an American “ironclad” security guarantee but could get a “softer” commitment to an American response if Saudi Arabia was directly attacked. Still, many in Washington are deeply skeptical of the Saudis and want to ensure that the United States is not drawn into conflicts started by the kingdom, such as its war in Yemen.
The Saudis have always been fearful that Tehran might develop a nuclear weapon. MBS was always skeptical of the “Iran Nuclear Deal,” and said he would not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. He recently emphasized that if Iran obtained a weapon, his country would "have to get one, for security reasons, for balancing power." As an alternative, Saudi Arabia has proposed coming under the American “nuclear umbrella.” Currently this “extended deterrence” is enjoyed by NATO members and close American allies in the Pacific: Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
Riyadh also wants Washington to support its civilian nuclear program. MBS believes transitioning the Saudi energy economy, a cornerstone of his Vision 2030, is essential. He considers it an aid against terrorist threats and an opportunity for the country’s growing population. But MBS also wants to enrich active material in Saudi Arabia, which the U.S. has never previously agreed to in similar agreements, and experts fear this could eventually help Riyadh develop its own nuclear weapons. Saudi officials have proposed a compromise that would establish a “nuclear Aramco” as a joint U.S.-Saudi project with greater American oversight.
But MBS would also need to make additional commitments: ratification of the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), American/IAEA inspections of facilities, as well as electronic monitoring. Thus far, MBS has declined to act on these proposals.
Congress and the view from Washington
Washington obviously desires to secure U.S. interests in the region and counter Russian and Chinese influence. It is worth noting that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad recently inked a “strategic partnership” with Beijing, Kuwait’s crown prince visited Xi Jinping, and $23.4 billion in deals were signed at the China-Arab Trade Expo. Moscow also maintains ties with Riyadh and other oil-producing countries in the region through OPEC+, which directly impacts Western gas prices.
Any agreement that is framed as a treaty, would require a two-thirds vote in the Senate, another challenge. Even Senate Democrats have expressed concern about a deal. Twenty senators sent a letter to the White House saying their support was dependent on a halt to expanded Israeli settlements in Palestinian territories and the preservation of “a two-state solution.” Senators also raised concerns that a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia could enmesh the U.S. in the Middle East further. These are clearly fair arguments, particularly now.
Conclusions
The complexities of global conflict are expanding almost on a daily basis which may undermine parts of Biden’s ambitious foreign policy. Still, in three years, this White House ended the nation’s involvement in its longest war, resurrected the NATO alliance to confront Russia, and reconfigured the security architecture in the Indo-Pacific region to respond to China and North Korea. Any deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be an immense feather in the Administration’s cap, especially now.
Negotiations appeared to be progressing in small but not insignificant ways prior to the Hamas attack. Israeli planes are allowed overflight rights over Saudi Arabia, an Israeli cabinet minister recently visited the kingdom - the first time this has ever happened — and an Israeli official provided another first by conducting a Jewish prayer service in Saudi Arabia. Secretary of State Blinken was reported to be preparing to visit Israel as part of these negotiations.
But the current war demonstrates once again that long-term peace in the region can only be achieved by addressing the Palestinian issue. The next few weeks will determine whether the “dogs of war” triumph over another attempt at Middle East stability. Choices made now could decide whether we see a long-term conflict that perhaps expands in both geography and protagonists or if diplomacy and negotiations are given a chance. As Biden said over the weekend, “The world is watching.”
