THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - June 22, 2011

After 11 consecutive trading days of ZERO Sectors of 9 being bullish on the Hedgeye immediate-term TRADE duration, 2 of 9 Sectors flashed green yesterday - Healthcare (XLV) and Utilities (XLU). That's the good news.

The bad news is that is a very defensive rotational signal - and the SP500 overall did not confirm bullish TRADE (1305 is TRADE line resistance). So we shorted the SPY at 1297 today, looking for a continuation of this market's bearish intermediate term TREND (1320 is TREND line resistance).  Fortuitously, we covered our Basic Materials (XLB) short last week when we signaled a "Short Covering Opportunity."  We also remain long Healthcare (XLV), which is now up +12.2% for the YTD.

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 46 points or -2.82% downside to 1259 and 0.73% upside to 1305.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 622

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +2167 (+1098)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 851.16 (+8.23%)
  • VIX:  18.86 -5.65% YTD PERFORMANCE: +6.25%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.57 from 1.65 (-4.80%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 22.52
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.03%
  • 10-Year: 2.99 from 2.97
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.59 from 2.59 

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 7 a.m.: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 13.0%
  • 10 a.m.: FHFA House Price Index, est. (-0.3%), prior (-0.3%)
  • 10:30 a.m.: DoE inventories
  • 12:30 p.m.: FOMC rate decision
  • 2:15 p.m.: Bernanke press conference

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Bullish sentiment increases to 37.6% from 37.0% in the latest US Investor's Intelligence poll
  • Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won a parliamentary confidence vote
  • Americans are growing more dissatisfied with Obama’s handling of the economy, Bloomberg poll shows
  • FOMC completes two-day meeting with interest-rate decision at 12:30 p.m

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Silver-Coin Sales Boom at Perth’s Mint as Mums and Dads Desert Paper Money
  • Sugar Crop in Thailand Climbing to Record for Second Year May Curb Prices
  • Century of Hunger Is Warning From France as Farm Ministers From G-20 Meet
  • Nickel-Concentrate Imports by China Double to Record as Production Climbs
  • Aluminum’s Premium Gains Being Fueled by LME Warehouse Rules, Harbor Says
  • Oil Drops on U.S. Stockpiles, OPEC Output; Goldman Sees ‘Choppy’ Prices
  • Copper Drops on Concern Europe’s Debt Crisis May Erode Demand for Metals
  • White Sugar Rises on Speculation About Crop Losses in Top Producer Brazil
  • Wheat Gains as 16% Slump Lures Buyers, Canada’s Acreage Drops on Weather
  • Gold May Advance as European Sovereign-Debt Concern Stokes Investor Demand
  • Oil May Rise Above $95 a Barrel After Clearing Band: Technical Analysis
  • Rubber in Tokyo Declines to Four-Week Low as Supply From Thailand Expands
  • Rainstorms in China Provinces Seen Raising Concerns of Reduced Rice Crop
  • Europe Commodity Day Ahead: France Warns of Century of Hunger Before G-20

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • EUROPE: red across the board with Greece bucking the trend but trading below TREND lines

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

ASIAN MARKETS

  • ASIA: green across the board, with China (which we are long) up +0.10%, Japan up 1.79% and India is sliding again down -14.53% YTD

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

Howard Penney

Managing Director