Today, we presented our view that PFE is probably going to have a tough time hitting that $13.5B guide for Comirnaty. Maybe they get the $8B promised for Paxlovid - we can only wonder what their contracts say. A $45B base business is plausible but only if the revenue they give up to all the hands in the drug channel cookie jar stabilizes. The rope-a-dope they have been giving the street on Comirnaty uptake (24% - really!) accompanied by a large dollop of "uncertainty" argues for some walking back in October. Let's see where they go.
More in the replay here.
Timestamps below.
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0:00 - 1:33 - Introduction 1:34 - 8:45 - Inflation and consumption 8:45 - 26:22 Comirnaty: guidance, uptake assumptions and model for US and EU; commercialization snags; Google trends and public health counter detailing 26:22 - 33:09 Paxlovid: guidance, assumptions and model; inventory; relationship to tests positive and receding threats 33:09 - 42:23 Base business: revenue diversion acceleration, guidance and model; role of AMGN settlement with FTC 42:23-46:00 Guidance v. street v Hedgeye: some reconciliation is in order |
Let me know if you have any questions.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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