High-yield spreads have remained relatively flat lately, but full-cycle investors are capable of zooming out to recall what’s happened beyond “year to date” and what’s likely in store.
“I hear you on high yield not imploding last week. But what I care about is: When did I put the position on? Where are we going next?” Keith McCullough explains in this clip from The Macro Show.
Hedgeye’s CEO was bullish when high yield peaked in late 2021. Since then, he’s been bearish for the duration of a 17% decline that began in January 2022.
“Every time I’ve shorted High-Yield Bonds (HYG or JNK) at the top end of the range for the past 21 months, I’ve gotten paid,” McCullough adds.
To hear why McCullough believes we’ll soon enter a recession (and what that means for high-yield performance) watch today’s Macro Show and Macro Themes Coaching Session (both available free on demand as part of Hedgeye’s All Access Week).
“For the answer on why we’re not bullish [high yield], please review the last 18 minutes of my rant,” McCullough concludes.