We are hosting our weekly Consumables Show today, September 11 @ 12 PM ET.
EVENT DETAILS:
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Every Monday at 12 PM ET our Consumables Team will be hosting a live event where we will go through Timely and Topical events/data that have occurred in our respective industries, as well as preview the week to come. We hope that you can grab your lunch and join us as we break down the Restaurant, Consumer Staples, and Cannabis space.
We will explore a number of topics including recent position monitor changes, top questions from client meetings, most frequent inbounds, pushback on our most recent calls, and updates on some of our best ideas.
Oat milk's Growth beckons private label (STKL)
According to Circana refrigerated oat milk sales increased by 21% in the 52 weeks ended June 18. Units increased by 5.2%. Planet Oat was the market share leader with sales growth of 16% and units down 0.5%. Oatly’s sales grew 21% with unit growth of 8%. Chobani’s oat milk sales grew 37% with unit growth of 15%. Califia oat milk sales grew by 12.4% with unit growth of 0.8%. Private label sales grew by 27.9% with unit growth of 22.1%. Private label only represented 4% of total refrigerated oat milk sales.
Refrigerated almond milk sales grew by 3% with a unit decline of 9%. Blue Diamond is the market share leader in almond milk at ~40%. Blue Diamond almond milk grew by 9% YOY and units decreased by 5%. Coconut milk sales grew by 23% with unit growth of 4%. Soy milk sales grew 13% and units decreased by 4%. SunOpta noted a recent slowdown in almond milk retail sales in its Q2 call. Private label is significantly underpenetrated in oat milk. With its nationwide coverage, SunOpta is positioned to grow in private label once the retailers add the offering.
The majority wants to lose weight (HSY)
According to a Morning Consult survey, three in ten U.S. adults are interested in trying GLP-1 drugs for weight loss. More than half said they needed to lose more than 20 pounds. 39% of adults surveyed said they have heard at least something about semaglutide prescription medications. Awareness was highest among high earners (54%) and those who are currently dieting (53%). Millennials were the demographic most interested in the drugs at 45%. Interest among adults making over $100,000 was at 42% compared to 24% for those making $50,000 or less. For those who are interested in losing weight, they were most interested in increasing exercise at 81% or dieting at 72% compared to interest in GLP-1 drugs at 32% or weight loss surgery at 23%. Demand for the GLP-1 drugs currently exceeds supply raising expectations for how many people will take the medication in the future. The high cost of the medication is a significant barrier to increasing adoption. Despite the indicated interest, most people prefer dieting or exercising to achieve their weight goals. We hosted our Hershey Black Book on Friday. Addressing the possibility of volume declines from consumers taking GLP-1 drugs was one of the topics we explored. For the replay CLICK HERE.
Organic produce inflation (SFM)
According to the USDA, the average monthly price for organic fresh produce increased 12% YOY in July but decreased 9% from June. November and December were the peak prices for organic fresh produce. Compared to 2019 prices are up 9.1%. With the growing headwinds for consumers elasticity for premium-priced organic produce will increase.
