Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

Today’s Q3 Mid-Quarter Update Macro Themes presentation has 188 slides in the deck.*

On slide 22, we show the most important starting point to have a mathematically oriented debate about headline US INFLATION: the 2-year Base Effects for Headline CPI (Consumer Price Inflation). I’ll summarize with 3 critical modeling points:

  1. PEAK CYCLE Base Effect was the monthly one in JUN of 2023 at +7.25%
  2. For the NEXT 2 months, the Base Effect EASES by 45 basis points (that’s a lot) to 6.80%
  3. WHEN Base Effects are EASING and things are INFLATING, headline INFLATION #accelerates

*Institutional subscribers will have LIVE access to the content and presentation (ping

CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation Re-Acceleration #Reiterated - 9.7.23