Goldman Sachs grabbed headlines today claiming odds of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months is only 15% (down from its 35% estimate in March and 20% in July).

“Of course, Goldman’s research is different than its position,” Keith McCullough explains in this clip from The Macro Show. “We’ll walk through this on Thursday (in our 3Q Mid-Quarter Macro Themes update), but there’s major-league government spending that hasn’t been curtailed. In 4Q 2023 and 1Q 2024, the probability that you have a recession goes way up.” 

Unlike investors who take bullish big bank forecasts at face value, Hedgeye subscribers receive research from a transparent, uncompromised team of 40+ analysts who report reality.  

“As the data changes, we change,” Hedgeye’s CEO adds. “We don’t sit there and slap a 15% probability on a recession when the recessionary odds are dropping in 3Q and ripping in 4Q into 1Q. That’s a much better way, obviously. We’re doing it the way everything else in your life goes, they’re doing it bull$#*t.” 

Watch the full clip above. 

To receive access to Keith McCullough’s full, 130+ slide Mid-Quarter presentation on Thursday, email

McCullough: Goldman Sachs Says 15% Chance of Recession. LOL. - TMS Banner