TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - June 6, 2011

There isn’t a data point or market price across the Hedgeye Global Macro risk management model that suggests this correction is over, yet:

  1. Treasury Bonds – continuing higher this morning w/ 2-yr yields crashing to 0.42% (10s at 2.99%); yield curve compressing
  2. Asian/European Stocks – Japan + Spain (2 of our short positions) down -1.2% and -0.9% this morning (Keynesianism not working)
  3. US Stocks – down for 5 consecutive weeks, which isn’t exactly textbook bull market (down -4.6% since April 29th high)


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or -0.32% downside to 1296 and 1.53% upside to 1320.






THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance



  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1315 (+1135)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 971.40 (-3.66%)
  • VIX:  17.95 -0.77% YTD PERFORMANCE: +1.93%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.61 from 1.19 (-26.59%)



  • TED SPREAD: 22.15
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.04%
  • 10-Year: 2.99 from 3.04
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.57 from 2.59 



  • 11 a.m.: Export inspections: corn, soybeans, wheat
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $27b 3-mo., $24b 6-mo. bills
  • 1:15 p.m.: Treasury’s Geithner speaks to bankers in Atlanta
  • 4 p.m.: Crop conditions: Corn, winter wheat, cotton, soybean
  • 5:30 p.m.: Fed’s Fisher speaks in NY


  • Philly Fed President Charles Plosser said plan to withdraw central bank’s record monetary stimulus, “normalize” interest-rate policy would help avert confusion in financial markets
  • Death toll from Germany’s E. coli outbreak rose to 22, with officials saying sprouts grown near Uelzen a “significant source of the bacteria”
  • German government spokesman says expects EU/ECB/IMF report on Greece by mid week -- Reuters
  • Social Democrats win Portuguese parliamentary election, removing the Socialist Party from power -- Boston Globe





THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view




  • Wheat Fields Wilt in Drought as Parched Earth Spreads From China to Kansas
  • Oil Falls for a Second Day on Signs Slowing U.S. Economy May Crimp Demand
  • Copper Rises for Second Day as Strike at Codelco Mine Fuels Supply Concern
  • Gold Advances for Second Day After U.S. Data Increases Recovery Concerns
  • Wheat Climbs on Speculation USDA Is Set to Reduce Global Supply Estimate
  • OPEC Overshadowed by Qaddafi in Most-Hostile Meeting Since 1990 Gulf War
  • Russia’s Black Earth Grains Growing Area Faces ‘50-50’ Chance of Drought
  • Rubber in Tokyo Advances for Second Day Amid Tight Supplies in Thailand
  • Grain Stockpiles Worldwide May Drop, Soybeans May Increase, Survey Shows
  • Commodity Bubbles Caused by Speculators Need Intervention, UN Agency Says
  • Olam Said to Raise $600 Million in Share Sale to Help Fund Acquisitions
  • Funds Boost Bullish Commodity Bets Amid Improving Global Growth Prospects
  • E. Coli Outbreak Death Toll Rises to 22 as Blame Focuses on Bean Sprouts




THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view




  • In Europe a wet Kleenex continues to hover over Europe Keynesian experiment; Spain down -0.8% after Portugal votes out the socialist party too
  • UK new car registrations (1.7%) y/y in May - SMMT -- wires

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance




  • In Asia, China closed but rest of Asia continues lower; Japan down -1.2% to -8.3% YTD (we're short $EWJ); Thailand down -1.1%; Vietnam -2.2%
  • Hong Kong, China, and Taiwan were closed for Tuen Ng/Dragon Boat Festival
  • South Korea was closed for Hyun Choong Il.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance







Howard Penney

Managing Director

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more