Hedgeye Cartoon of the Day: Pinocchio is Back!
Hedgeye REITs Chart of the Day: Inflation Re-Accelerating
Source: Hedgeye Macro Team
Quote of Quad 3: As Henry Ford once said, “it is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
Recent Events:
Black Book: Active Short Digital Realty (DLR) - Replay LINK
MPW REIT Status - Deck LINK
Ticker: KW
Company Name: New Active Short Kennedy-Wilson
Subsector: Multifamily / Office / Retail
Headline: Adding KW to Active Short list, see ~35% downside from current levels
- We are adding Kennedy-Wilson (KW) as an Active Short idea. We are considering doing a black book presentation on this one toward the end of the summer, as it is fascinating.
- First on the potential catalyst: Microsoft's ~400ksf lease (~70% of RSF at that asset) at Sunset North in Bellevue reaches expiration in November, and our understanding is that there may be significant risk of the tenant not renewing and vacating this space. We do not believe the company has alerted the Street of this potential move out, and it is not clear to us how broadly understood this is. In general, there is significant risk of this and other suburban office assets (~10% of total NOI, all office accounts for ~30% of KW's NOI) dragging on financial results, and also obviously warranting a higher applied cap rate.
- Update at 12:48pm ET on 7.31.23: KW disclosed this on pages 15-16 of the 2022 10-K report, which we were not aware of. "One of the two tenants that make up our entire tenant population at one of our office properties located in Bellevue, Washington (the third largest asset by our share of net operating income), has given us notice of its intent to vacate the property at the end of their current lease (October 2023)."
- We arrive at a going-concern NAV of ~$11/share, or roughly ~35% below the current share price before dividends. This implies a ~6.3% nominal cash cap rate on the company's operating assets. There are several factors (complexity, JV interests, very high leverage, international exposure, etc.) that likely warrant further discounts to NAV. MF REITs on average currently trade at ~10-15% discounts to consensus NAV estimates, without the drag of these factors.
- Adjusting for in-process developments and also excluding promotes/asset sale gains from recurring EBITDA, we estimate KW's leverage at 17-20x net debt-to-EBITDA.
- We give KW full credit for the stated ~$1.8 billion gross asset value of projects in lease-up and under development. While there is an argument to be made that value creation could/should be included in the analysis, in this case we think gross asset value is "fair" given (1) office accounts for ~15-20% of estimated stabilized NOI and biases up the cap rate, (2) the Kona Village Resort in Hawaii is already being developed at a very high price/key, in our view, and (3) there is not much spread between the estimated stabilized yield of ~6% and the ~5-5.50% cap rates MF REITs are currently offering in the market (multifamily is the majority of the pipeline). Even under a value creation analysis, we do not think there would be much dollar spread overall, and the effect of PV'ing it back (necessary) would discount the majority of it. I.e., we are not talking about "delivering at a 6% or 7% and selling at a 4-4.5%."
- As KW is not a REIT, corporate income taxes MUST be accounted for in the analysis in our view, unlike a typical REIT NAV. We do this by assuming a Year 1 cash tax obligation of ~$20 million growing at +3% per annum and treated as a perpetuity using a ~10% discount rate. This results in a ~$295 million (~$2.10/share) deduct from a going concern NAV.
- We deduct corporate overhead from the recurring fee streams generated from KW's investment management business and then capitalize that number at ~10x producing a value of ~$170 million, or ~$1.20/share. Similar to how PLD, for example, receives a NAV premium (all else the same) from strategic capital fee streams more than covering corporate overhead, so should the reverse be true for KW (and others) where the platform and corporate overhead still deducts value from the portfolio of real estate assets.
- Potential accounting/reporting items:
- Asset sale gains should NOT be included in EBITDA, at least not on a recurring basis. Moreover, any EBITDA figure should not include or should be normalized for any promote income. We think reported EBITDA is inflated, particularly if and when the pace of asset sales slow.
- Ticking through the income and cash flow statements for this non-REIT, we think there is a high likelihood that any reported AFFO metric (as any REIT would report it) would or could be negative. I.e., internally generated cash flow may be negative after debt costs, capex and dividend payments, at the very least prior to in-process developments stabilizing.
- KW reports 2Q23 results after the market closes on 8.2.23.
Figure 1: KW's GIP Quad Backtest
Source: Hedgeye Macro Team
Figure 2: Updated REITs Position Monitor
Source: Company Reports, FactSet, Hedgeye
Prior Notes:
7.30.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | POSITION MONITOR UPDATES + SBAC + AMH | 7.30.23 | (AMH, SBAC, DLR, MPW)
7.28.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | TICKING THROUGH JOE'S 2Q23 RESULTS | 7.28.23 | (JOE)
7.27.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH + STAG 2Q23 RESULTS | 7.27.23 | (INVH, STAG)
7.26.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXXV | THINKING THROUGH "INT'L JV" & REIT STATUS | 7.26.23 | (MPW)
7.25.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | NXRT 2Q23 POINTS TO RISING BAD DEBT ISSUES | 7.25.23 | (NXRT)
7.22.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | POSITION MONITOR CHANGES | 7.22.23 | (HR, CTRE, AMH, DLR, MPW)
7.21.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 7.21.23
7.20.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | REXR 2Q23 EARNINGS: WE SEE AN INTERESTING TREND | 7.20.23 (REXR)
7.18.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | DLR CHICAGO JV FINALLY COMPLETED | 7.18.23 (DLR)
7.17.23 - POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 7.17.23 | (KW)
7.16.23 - SPECIAL SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | IS MPW A REIT? | 7.16.23 | (MPW)
7.14.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SENATE LEGISLATION INTRODUCED TARGETING SFR | 7.14.23 (AMH, INVH, TCN)
7.14.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 7.14.23
7.12.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | REMOVING IRM FROM ACTIVE LONG LIST | 7.12.23 (IRM)
7.9.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | A TOUR OF SHORT IDEAS | 7.9.23 | (COLD, DLR, MPW)
7.7.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 7.7.23
7.7.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | AGGREGATE RENT ROC DECELERATING, 1ST DERIV. (-) IN JUNE | 7.7.23 (APARTMENTS)
7.4.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | ADDING AVB TO ACTIVE LONG LIST | 7.4.23 (AVB)
7.2.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | LONG HUNTING IN MF, BUT NOT THERE YET ON EQR | 7.2.23 | (EQR)
6.30.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 6.30.23
6.29.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH ACQUIRING SREIT PORTFOLIO? | 6.29.23 (EPR, INVH)
6.27.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INITIAL FEEDBACK FROM DLR BLACK BOOK | 6.27.23 (DLR, MPW)
6.26.23 - REMINDER | BLACK BOOK - ACTIVE SHORT DIGITAL REALTY @ 10AM ET ON 6.26.23 | (DLR)
6.23.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 6.23.23
6.19.23 - MONDAY NIGHT REIT READ | ADDING REXR TO ACTIVE SHORT LIST | 6.19.23 | (REXR, ABR)
6.16.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 6.16.23
6.13.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXXIII | "A MASTERCLASS IN GASLIGHTING"| 6.13.23 | (MPW)
6.13.23 - UPDATE | EVENT INVITE | ACTIVE SHORT DLR BLACK BOOK PRESENTATION | (DLR)
6.12.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | STOPPED OUT ON ABR | 6.12.23 (ABR)
6.11.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | UPDATING UHAL NUMBERS FOLLOWING 10-K FILING | 6.11.23 | (UHAL)
6.9.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 6.9.23
6.8.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | DLR BOARD LETTER MAKES WAVES AT NAREIT | 6.8.23 (DLR, INVH, TCN, REXR)
6.6.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH NAREIT UPDATE NOT GREAT | 6.6.23 (INVH, AMH, AVB, IRT)
6.5.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | APARTMENT UPDATES, BOTH EQUITY & DEBT | 6.5.23 (ABR, AVB, EQR, ESS, UDR)
6.4.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | NAREIT DECKS ROLLING OUT | 6.4.23 | (MPW, REXR, ESS, AMH, INVH, CPT)
6.2.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 6.2.23
6.1.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXXI | ANOTHER TENANT FILES BK WITHIN A YEAR OF SLB | 6.1.23 | (MPW)
5.31.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UHAL DELAYS 2023 10-K FILING | 5.31.23 (UHAL, MPW)
5.29.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | QUI TAM JOINT DISCOVERY PLAN FILED | 5.29.23 | (INVH)
5.26.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 5.26.23
5.26.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SBAC OUR FAVORITE TAIL LONG IDEA | 5.26.23 (SBAC, BXP)
5.24.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXX | MORE PROSPECT RESTRUCTURING DETAILS EMERGE | 5.24.23 (MPW)
5.23.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXIX | ARTICLE FROM TAP ON MPW & STEWARD | 5.23.23 (MPW)
5.23.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UHAL MOVES EARNINGS + DEBT REFERENCE POINT | 5.23.23 (UHAL, AMT, DLR, MPW)
5.22.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | ADDING DLR TO ACTIVE SHORT LIST | 5.22.23 | (DLR, OFC, MPW)
5.19.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 5.19.23
5.18.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXVII| | SEC WHISTLEBLOWER CASE FILED IN MALTA ORDEAL | 5.18.23 (MPW)
5.17.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UPDATING AMH ESTIMATES + PRIME DOWNGRADED | 5.17.23 (AMH, MPW)
5.16.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UPDATING INVH ESTIMATES | 5.16.23 (CPT, INVH)
5.14.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | FLORIDA IMMIGRATION BILL's IMPACT ON CONSTRUCTION | 5.14.23 | (JOE)
5.12.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 5.12.23
5.11.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | QUI TAM SETTLEMENT INCOMING? | 5.11.23 (INVH)
5.11.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXVII | 1Q23 10-Q REVIEW + FULL CASH FLOW MODEL | 5.11.23 (MPW)
5.9.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | REMOVING EPR FROM ACTIVE SHORT LIST | 5.9.23 (EPR)
5.7.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | NOTES FROM THE ABR CALL + ADDING A PILE OF CASH | 5.7.23 | (ABR, EQC, SLG)
5.6.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXVI | COMING IN OVER THE TOP... | 5.6.23 (MPW)
5.5.23 - AMH 1Q23 RESULTS | 5.5.23 (AMH)
5.4.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH FILES TO DISMISS IMPLEADER CLAIMS | 5.4.23 (INVH)
5.4.23 - PSA 1Q23 RESULTS | 5.4.23 (PSA)
5.23.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH 1Q23 RESULTS + COMMONSPIRIT DEAL CLOSED | 5.2.23 (INVH, MPW, NSA, JOE)
4.28.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXV | 1Q23 REVIEW + 2023 PROXY REVIEW | 4.28.23 (MPW)
4.27.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | VNO DIVIDEND SUSPENSION + JOE ROC DECELERATION AS EXPECTED | 4.27.23 (VNO, JOE)
4.26.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXIV | GET SOME USEFUL INFO, ALONG WITH 1Q23 EARNINGS | 4.26.23 (MPW)
4.24.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | CBRE OFFICE SUBLEASE STATS | 4.24.23 (OFFICE)
4.20.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXII | NO, WE HAVEN'T FORGOTTEN YOU - 1Q23 PREVIEW | 4.20.23 (MPW)
4.20.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 4.20.23
4.18.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | ABR LAWSUIT REVEALS POTENTIAL GOVERNANCE ISSUES | 4.18.23 (ABR, PLD)
4.17.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | APARTMENT RENT TRACKER + ANOTHER ABR SPONSOR ISSUE? | 4.17.23 (MF, ABR, MPW)
4.16.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | UPDATING SFR MODELS | 4.16.23 | (AMH, INVH, WY)
4.14.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 4.14.23
4.13.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UPDATED BLACK BOOK CALENDAR INVITES | 4.13.23 (JOE, SBAC)
4.9.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | ADDING NSA TO ACTIVE LONG LIST | 4.9.23 | (NSA, MPW)
4.7.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LXI | NO DAYS OFF... THE ONLY EASY DAY WAS YESTERDAY | 4.7.23 (MPW)
4.6.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 4.6.23
4.5.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | ABR SPONSOR COVERAGE + INVH IMPLEADER RESPONSE | 4.5.23 (ABR, INVH)
4.5.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LX | SENATOR SENDS LETTER TO MPW & OTHERS | 4.5.23 (MPW)
4.4.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SELF-STORAGE ESTIMATES | 4.4.23 (PSA, CUBE)
4.3.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LVIV | LAWSUIT CHECK POINTS TO MORE STEWARD UNPAID BILLS | 4.3.23 (MPW)
4.3.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SIMILAR ROC STORY, BUT MOVING CUBE TO DMZ | 4.3.23 (CUBE, EXR, LSI, PSA, UHAL)
4.2.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | UPDATING STORAGE NUMBERS | 4.2.23 | (CUBE, EXR, PSA)
3.31.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | A FEW NEWS ITEMS BEFORE THE WEEKEND | 3.31.23 (WY, PGRE)
3.31.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 3.31.23
3.30.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | STANDARD "SIDE SHOW" IN QUI TAM CASE | 3.30.23 (INVH)
3.29.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | HEALTHSCOPE SALE DETAILS EMERGING | 3.29.23 (MPW, ABR)
3.26.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | GOOD TIMES ALL AROUND | 3.26.23 | (ABR, MPW, NTST)
3.24.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 3.24.23
3.23.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE - MOVING NTST TO DMZ | 3.23.23 (NTST)
3.23.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE - MOVING NTST TO DMZ | 3.23.23 (NTST)
3.21.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UPDATE ON ABR - WORSE THAN WE FIRST PUBLISHED | 3.22.23 (ABR, SLG)
3.21.23 - SAVE THE DATE | BLACK BOOK PRESENTATION - ACTIVE SHORT ST. JOE CO. | 4.6.23 | (JOE)
3.19.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | SHORT ARBOR - BV DEGRADATION COMING | 3.19.23 | (ABR, SLG, VNO)
3.18.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 3.18.23
3.16.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | GOING BACK TO THE SECURITIZATIONS... | 3.16.23 (INVH)
3.15.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LVII | WHY A COMP CONSULTANT AS SENIOR ADVISOR TO CEO? | 3.15.23 (MPW)
3.15.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | TREMORS IN MREIT LAND | 3.15.23 (ABR, BRT, AMT, SBAC)
3.11.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | COMPLETING THE SBAC PIVOT | 3.11.23 (SBAC, MPW)
3.10.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 3.10.23
3.9.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LVI | "PROSPECT NEUTRAL" = "PROSPECT ZERO?" | 3.9.23 (MPW)
3.7.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LV | ANOTHER EXEC DEPARTURE AT STEWARD? | 3.7.23 (MPW)
3.6.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | MORE RESI CONFERENCE THOUGHTS... | 3.6.23 (AVB, ESS, INVH)
3.5.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | A FEW PRESENTATION CALL-OUTS | 3.5.23 | (MAA, CPT, EXR/LSI/PSA)
3.3.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 3.3.23
3.2.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | REMOVING RADI FROM ACTIVE LONG LIST | 3.2.23 (RADI, INVH)
3.2.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LIV | 2022 10-K FILING REVIEW | 3.2.23 (MPW)
3.1.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | THOUGHTS FOLLOWING AMC'S 4Q22 RESULTS | 3.1.23 (EPR)
2.28.23 - CORRECTION: REITS DAILY BRIEF | RADI SALE SAGA FINALLY CONCLUDING? | 2.28.23 (RADI)
2.27.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LIII | STOP WASTING OUR TIME | 2.27.23 (MPW)
2.26.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | EPR 4Q22 CALL NOTES | 2.26.23 | (EPR)
2.26.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LII | "FRAUD" IN MALTA | 2.26.23 (MPW)
2.24.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 2.24.23
2.24.23 - AMH 4Q22 RESULTS | DISAPPOINTING FY23 GUIDE SHOULDN'T BE A SURPRISE... | 2.24.23 (AMH)
2.24.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. LI | MPW'S EQUITY REMAINS WORTHLESS | 2.24.23 (MPW)
2.23.23 - EPR 4Q22 RESULTS | BETTER 4Q, BUT NO FY23 OUTLOOK THE FOCUS | 2.23.23 (EPR)
2.22.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. L | NEW FILINGS IN TENET/STEWARD LITIGATION | 2.22.23 (MPW)
2.21.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | PSA 4Q22 + INVH CASE + OFFICE LOANS | 2.22.23 (PSA, INVH, OFFICE)
2.21.23 - NXRT 4Q22 RESULTS | MOVING TO SHORT BENCH | 2.21.23 (NXRT)
2.20.23 - MONDAY NIGHT REIT READ | NXRT 4Q + STAG MODEL + MIKE PAPA WHISKEY | 2.20.23 | (NXRT, STAG, MPW)
2.17.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 2.17.23
2.16.23 - COLD 4Q22 RESULTS | 2.16.23 (COLD)
2.16.23 - STAG 4Q22 RESULTS | THINK THE FY23 GUIDE IS CONSERVATIVE | 2.16.23 (STAG)
2.16.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLIX | PUTTING ALL THE MOVING PARTS TOGETHER, AGAIN | 2.16.23 (MPW)
2.15.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLVIII | COMMONSPIRIT DISCLOSED THE PURCHASE PRICE | 2.15.23 (MPW)
2.15.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH EARNINGS + MPW FOLLOW-UP | 2.15.23 (INVH, MPW)
2.15.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLVI | NO-NONSENSE TAKE ON STEWARD UTAH | 2.15.23 (MPW)
2.13.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLV | TOO MUCH V'CNCY IN BIRMINGHAM... SO BUILD A HQ | 2.13.23 (MPW)
2.12.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | NEW ACTIVE SHORT ST. JOE COMPANY | 2.12.23 | (JOE, IRT, DOC)
2.10.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UPDATED CPT NUMBERS + REGAL LEASE NEGOTIATIONS | 2.10.23 (CPT, EPR, O)
2.9.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLIV | ALL OF YOUR MODELS ARE BROKEN... | 2.9.23 (MPW)
2.9.23 - UHAL 3Q23 RESULTS | U-MISS'ED THE QUARTER | 2.9.23 (UHAL)
2.8.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | ESS 4Q RESULTS + UHAL + POSITION MONITOR UPDATES | 2.8.23 (ESS, IRT, UHAL)
2.7.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | STORAGE DEAL + UDR RESULTS + INVH CLASS ACTION | 2.7.23 (LSI, PSA, INVH, UDR)
2.5.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | WHO BLINKS FIRST? WE THINK SELLERS AS WELL | 2.5.23 | (CPT, EPR, MPW)
2.3.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 2.3.23
2.3.23 - CPT 4Q22 RESULTS | OUTRIGHT MISS ON THE QUARTER AND FY23 GUIDE | 2.3.23 (CPT)
2.3.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLIII | CHERNOBYL IS REBUILDING | 2.3.23 (MPW)
2.2.23 - MAA 4Q22 RESULTS | MIXED BAG, BUT WE LEAN SLIGHT "MISS" ON FY23 GUIDE VS. EXPECTATIONS | (MAA)
2.1.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLII FLASH | STEWARD'S PRESIDENT DEPARTING | 2.1.23 (MPW)
2.1.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SFR "PRICING POWER" NARRATIVE TO BE TESTED | 2.1.23 (AMH, INVH, TCN)
1.31.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH CFO DEPARTURE + ADDING AMH TO ACTIVE SHORT LIST | 1.31.23 (AMH, INVH)
1.29.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | "RENTER BILL OF RIGHTS" + STEWARD WTF | 1.29.23 | (APARTMENTS, SFR, MPW)
1.27.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 1.27.23
1.27.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLI | REBUTTING THE SHASTA REBUTTAL | 1.27.23 (MPW)
1.26.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | RADI SALE PROCESS CONCLUDING NEXT MONTH? | 1.26.23 (EPR/AMC, RADI, SLG)
1.22.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | POTENTIAL FY23 BEATS & MISSES | 1.22.23 (AMH, CUBE, INVH, IRM, MPW, STAG)
1.20.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 1.20.23
1.20.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | OUR NOTES FROM THE PLD CALL | 1.20.23 (PLD)
1.20.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XXXX | PROSPECT CROZER MIGHT BE A TOTAL LOSS | 1.20.23 (MPW)
1.16.23 - MONDAY NIGHT REIT READ | MULTIFAMILY UNDERWRITING + EPR + PIPELINE | 1.16.23 (EPR, APARTMENTS, MPW)
1.13.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XXXIX | PIPELINE HEALTH IS SIMPLY INCREDIBLE | 1.13.23 (MPW)
1.13.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 1.13.23
1.13.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UPDATING SFR #s FOR HIGHER NC PROPERTY TAXES | 1.13.23 (AMH, INVH)
1.12.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATES | 1.12.23 (AMT, HIW, MAA, NSA, SBAC, VTR)
1.10.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | ADDING/REMOVING CUBE/SBAC TO ACTIVE SHORT LIST | 1.10.23 (CUBE, EXR, SBAC, WPC)
1.8.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | SD WHISTLEBLOWER CASE ACTIVITY + EPR FEEDBACK | 1.8.23 (INVH, EPR, MPW)
1.7.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XXXVIII | ADD'L STEWARD VENDOR COMPLAINTS | 1.7.23 (MPW)
1.6.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 1.6.23
1.6.23 - EVENT REPLAY | NEW ACTIVE SHORT EPR PROPERTIES BLACK BOOK | 1.6.23 (EPR)
1.4.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXVII | ARTICLE ON "PONZI HOSPITALS" | 1.4.23 (MPW)
1.4.23 - FLASH | JUDGE DENIES INVH'S MTD | 1.4.23 (INVH)
1.3.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INITIAL THOUGHTS ON EPR | 1.3.23 (EPR)
1.1.23 - EVENT INVITE UPDATE | EPR PROPERTIES (EPR) BLACK BOOK | THURSDAY, 1/5 @ 12:30 PM ET
12.30.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.30.22
12.26.22 - MONDAY NIGHT REIT READ | MPW "CHEAT SHEET" | 12.26.22 (EPR, MPW)
12.23.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.23.22
12.22.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXVI | STEWARD ABL EXTENSION + OUR QUESTIONS | 12.22.22 (MPW)
12.22.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 12.22.22 (EPR)
12.20.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.20.22 (CUBE, EXR, LSI, NSA, PSA, MPW)
12.18.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | TAKING AN "L" ON HR | 12.18.22 (HR, DOC)
12.16.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXV | GOAL POSTS TORN DOWN? | 12.16.22 (MPW)
12.16.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.16.22
12.15.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | FLORIDA REINSURANCE BILL + MPW/STEWARD WTF? | 12.15.22 (AMH, INVH, TCN, MPW)
12.14.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | RENT CONTROL MEASURES + CEO CHANGE AT DLR | 12.14.22 (APARTMENTS, DLR)
12.14.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXIV | GOALPOSTS CONSTANTLY MOVING... | 12.14.22 (MPW)
12.12.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXIII | PIPELINE AUCTION CALLED OFF | 12.12.22 (MPW)
12.11.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | APARTMENT ITEMS + BREIT/SREIT + MPW MUSINGS | 12.11.22 (APARTMENTS, MPW)
12.9.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.9.22
12.9.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH TAKES OUT 2018-1 SECURITIZATION | 12.9.22 (INVH)
12.6.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXII | CIRCULATING THE CBS REPORT ON PROSPECT | 12.6.22 (MPW)
12.2.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.2.22
12.1.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | EQT "IN DISCUSSIONS" TO ACQUIRE RADI? | 12.1.22 (RADI)
11.29.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | HEALTHSCOPE PUSHED BACK + INDT BID | 11.29.22 (MPW, INDT)
11.28.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXX | PIPELINE BK UPDATE + STOCK IS NOT "CHEAP" | 11.28.22 (MPW)
11.27.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | POSITION MONITOR + VAL HANDBOOK | 11.27.22 (DLR, EQIX, HR, DOC, SBAC, MPW)
11.22.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | RESI NEWS ITEMS | 11.22.22
11.20.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | UHAL NUMBERS + POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 11.20.22 (UHAL)
11.19.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXIX | UPON FURTHER REVIEW... | 11.19.22 (MPW)
11.18.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 11.18.22
11.16.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | NOTES FROM NAREIT DAY #1 | 11.16.22
11.15.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXVIII | IMPORTANT UPDATES FROM CMAX | 11.15.22 (MPW)
11.14.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXVII | HEALTHSCOPE PORTFOLIO SALE UPDATE | 11.14.22 (MPW)
11.13.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 11.13.22 (IRM, PGRE)
11.11.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 11.11.22
11.9.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | 3Q22 10-Q REVIEW | 11.9.22 (MPW)
11.9.22 - RADI 3Q22 RESULTS | 11.9.22
11.7.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | HEADING BACK TO CHERNOBYL... | 11.7.22 (MPW)
11.6.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE + SBAC REVIEW | 11.6.22 (ADC, O, NTST, SBAC)
11.5.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXIV | OPERATIONS SUSPENDED AT DCMH | 11.5.22 (MPW)
11.4.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SOME FOLLOW UP ITEMS, INCLUDING ON INVH | 11.4.22
11.4.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 11.4.22
11.3.22 - AMH 3Q22 RESULTS | MORE PROPERTY TAX MEDICINE | 11.3.22
11.3.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 11.3.22
11.2.22 - LSI 3Q22 RESULTS | LSI TO THE RESCUE? | 11.2.22 (LSI)
11.2.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | OCTOBER APARTMENT RENT TRACKER | 11.2.22
11.2.22 - EXR 3Q22 RESULTS | OOF | 11.2.22 (EXR)
11.2.22 - PSA 3Q22 RESULTS | 11.2.22 (PSA)
11.1.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXIII | REAL-TIME LOOK AT TEXARKANA | 11.1.22 (MPW)
11.1.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXII | PIPELINE UNSECURED CREDITOR OBJECTION | 11.1.22 (MPW)
10.31.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | WE MADE A MISTAKE - ADJUSTING INVH NUMBERS | 10.31.22 (INVH)
10.31.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXI | PIPELINE BK UPDATE | 10.31.22 (MPW)
10.30.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | UPDATED INVH MODEL ASSUMPTIONS | 10.30.22 (INVH, MPW)
10.28.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XX | BACK TO THAT DRY HOLE IN TX... | 10.28.22 (MPW)
10.28.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.28.22
10.28.22 - STAG 3Q22 RESULTS | 10.28.22 (STAG)
10.27.22 - INVH POST-3Q22 CALL THOUGHTS | 10.27.22 (INVH)
10.26.22 - MAA 3Q22 RESULTS | 10.27.22 (MAA)
10.26.22 - INVH 3Q22 RESULTS | PERHAPS THE WORST QTR IN RECENT MEMORY FOR A "BLUE CHIP" | 10.26.22 (INVH)
10.26.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XIX | 3Q22 PREVIEW | 10.26.22 (MPW)
10.26.22 - EQR 3Q22 RESULTS | ANOTHER DECEL IN LEASING SPREADS | 10.26.22 (EQR)
10.25.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | THOUGHTS ON NXRT'S 3Q22 | 10.25.22 (NXRT)
10.25.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XVIII | I'M THE CAPTAIN NOW... | (MPW)
10.25.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XVII | THAT'S SOME EXPENSIVE GRASS! | (MPW)
10.23.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | LOT'S TO READ ON SFR | 10.23.22 (VRE, AMH, INVH, TCN, MPW, SBAC)
10.21.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.21.22
10.21.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | THC NEGATIVE READ ACROSS FOR STEWARD ET AL | 10.21.22 (MPW)
10.20.22 - REITS CLIENT ALERT | 10.20.22 (MPW)
10.20.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 3Q22 EARNINGS NOTES | 10.20.22 (REXR, CCI)
10.19.22 - CLARIFICATION ON MAA PORTION OF PRIOR NOTE | 10.19.22 (MAA)
10.19.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | NOTES FROM PLD'S 3Q + SUDDEN MAA CHANGE | 10.19.22 (PLD, MAA, MPW)
10.17.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | ELS MISS + SFR CONSIDERATIONS AROUND QUARTERRA | 10.18.22 (ELS, AMH, INVH, TCN)
10.16.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | ADDING STAG TO ACTIVE LONG LIST | 10.16.22 (STAG, MPW)
10.15.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XV | RESPONDING TO CEO INTERVIEW | (MPW)
10.14.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.14.22
10.11.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.11.22 (CPT, INVH, MPW)
10.10.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XIV | WE CALL YOUR BLUFF | (MPW)
10.10.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XIII | HEALTHSCOPE SALE WOULD LIKELY BE DILUTIVE | (MPW)
10.9.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.9.22 (RE FUND FLOWS, MPW, VNO)
10.7.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.7.22
10.7.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XII | WHAT EXACTLY IS "CREF?" | (MPW)
10.6.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XI | PROSPECT BUYING BACK CT HOSPITALS FROM MPW | (MPW)
10.5.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | FACEBOOK TERMINATING 225 PARK AVE LEASE | 10.5.22 (GATEWAY OFFICE, MAA)
10.4.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | WHERE ARE INVH'S + SUI'S IAN UPDATES? | 10.4.22 (INVH, SUI, MPW)
10.3.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME X | TAKEAWAYS FROM INITIAL PIPELINE FILINGS | (MPW)
10.3.22 - FLASH | THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME IX | MPW's ~#12 TENANT FILES IN BK COURT | (MPW)
10.3.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ (ON MONDAY MORNING) | 10.3.22 (SBAC, WY)
10.1.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.1.22
9.30.22 - FLASH | (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME VIII - DID STEWARD JUST BLOW UP? | (MPW)
9.30.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME VII - NOTHING TO SAY? | (MPW)
9.29.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | DIVVY HOMES LAYOFFS / GENERAL EXTERNAL GROWTH SLOWDOW | 9.29.22 (AMH, INVH, TCN)
9.28.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | WEN STEWARD CREDIT FACILITY? | 9.28.22 (MPW, APARTMENTS)
9.28.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME VI - A FAMILY AFFAIR (MPW)
9.26.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | IAN MUCH MORE THREATENING | 9.26.22 (ELS, SUI, AMH, INVH)
9.25.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | TS IAN SWINGING WEST | 9.25.22 (RESIDENTIAL)
9.23.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME V - THE CURIOUS CASE OF DISAPPEARING WORK EXPERIENCE | 9.23.22
9.23.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 9.23.22
9.20.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME IV - SO... ABOUT THAT ~$335 MILLION LOAN | 9.20.22 (MPW)
9.18.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME III - I'M ON A BOAT! | 9.18.22 (MPW)
9.16.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK & POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 9.16.22 (STOR)
9.15.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME 2 - WHATS A WHISTLEBLOWER TO DO? | 9.15.22 (MPW)
9.15.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME 1 - SEMC NLRB COMPLAINT | 9.15.22 (MPW)
9.14.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 9.14.22 (CPT, MAA, NXRT)
9.13.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | RESIDENTIAL UPDATES FLOODING IN | 9.13.22 (AMH, INVH)
9.9.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 9.9.22
9.7.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF PART II | WHAT REALLY HAPPENED W/ WATSONVILLE? | 9.7.22 (MPW)
9.7.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | LOOK AT RENT CONTROL MEASURES ON THE NOV BALLOT | 9.7.22 (RESIDENTIAL)
9.5.22 - MONDAY NIGHT REIT READ | INVH ADDED TO S&P 500 + MORE MPW THOUGHTS | 9.5.22 (INVH, MPW)
9.2.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 9.2.22
9.1.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF PART II | PROBABILITY UP THAT COMPLAINT GOES MULTI-STATE | 9.1.22 (INVH)
9.1.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATES | 9.1.22 (EQR, PGRE)
Please e-mail with any questions.
Rob Simone, CFA
Managing Director
Twitter: @HedgeyeREITs
