Thirsti launch (SN, PEP)
SharkNinja is launching its newest innovation, the Ninja Thirsti Drink System. The device offers a personalized drink with still, sparkling, flavor, function, and size varieties. The Ninja Thirsti is priced at $179.99 on the company’s own website. SharkNinja generally enters categories in which it thinks it can introduce new technology/features and dominate over time.
Ninja was the number 1 small kitchen appliance brand in the U.S. for the past three years. Amazon, Walmart, Best Buy, and Kohl’s will all carry the product. The device will compete against PepsiCo’s Sodastream appliance. SharkNinja could be trading on the NYSE as early as this week. There could be a wide range for valuation of SharkNinja which investors should be prepared for. We recently held a Black Book presentation on SharkNinja. In our presentation, we outlined the company's addressable market and positioning, competitive environment, future opportunities, findings from our model, innovation history, and much more. For the replay CLICK HERE.
Gas prices bottom (BJ, COST)
National average gasoline prices have fallen 13% YOY, but in the past week have risen 4%. Prices are at an eight-month high. Production cuts have led to WTI crude oil prices increasing 13% over the past month. Last year gas prices peaked in March nationally, but in California, a second surge in August matched the March highs. The average price in California, the highest in the country, is 33% higher than the national average. The warehouse clubs and grocers benefited in 2022 from strong fuel sales and higher than typical fuel margins. Now the base effects are working against them.
Beer Distributors Index (BUD, TAP)
The National Beer Wholesalers Association’s (NBWA) Beer Purchasers Index (BPI) remained at 54 for the second consecutive month. The BPI is a diffusion index where a reading above 50 denotes expansion in volumes while below 50 indicates contraction.
There were three categories of beer in expansion territory and four in contraction in July.
- Imports were 70 in July, improving from 68 in June, and 67 in the prior year.
- Below premium fell dramatically from 53 in June to 39 in July and ended the year long streak above 50.
- Premium lights were 54 in July, improving from 52 in June and nine points above the prior year.
- Premium regular was 53, improving from 43 in May and 36 in the prior year.
- Craft beer remained in contraction at 39, improving one point from June and from 32 in the prior year.
- FMBs & hard seltzer were 30 down from 31 in June, but up two points from the prior year.
- Cider was 32, but above the reading of 29 in the prior year.
The at-risk inventory reading improved as it fell from 51 in June to 44 in July, the first reading below 50 since February.
AB InBev’s takebacks from distributors and rebates for consumers while throttling production has helped it bring supplies into better balance as demand has dropped. At the same time demand has exceeded supply for Miller Lite and Coors Light.
