A little more data on Medicaid unwinding has come in but the impacts remain modest - and variable - among states. About 2M people have left the rolls but we still have not heard from certain high population states most notably New York and California. These states seem to be pitching their redetermination activities into the latter half of this year and next, despite the expiration of pandemic-era financial support by the end of the year.
This slow pace is confirmed by our forecast model that relies Treasury Department outlays, smoothed to reduce the monthly variability. The model suggests June enrollment in Medicaid of about 89M and about 7M in CHIP. Until we see some momentum among the high population states we expect enrollment levels to stay elevated.
Let me know if you have any questions.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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