Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Macro analyst Christian Drake.
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We explored the impact timing associated with policy tightening on consumption across historical cycles in our 3Q Macro Themes Presentation. If we map the lag from when the tightening cycle begins to where, on average, the consumption inflection/deteriorate begins, that zone is effectively right now. Is it reasonable that the evolution of the current cycle plays out comparably slower given its stubbornly plodding cadence thus far? Sure. But we think that cadence begins to accelerate from here. |
