RESTAURANT INSIGHTS | CAVA & Knapp Tracker June Chart Book

CAVA

We counted eight initiations, with 6 of them positive.

The highlights are not surprising with the strength of the concept with an experienced management team, broad demographic appeal across incomes/cohorts/geographies, and meaningful unit growth expansion. The consensus 2023 sales estimate came in at $706MM, below our estimate of $760. The 2024 consensus EBITDA came in at $63.5MM, also below our $70MM estimate. A $5.2B FD EV put the stock trading at 82.9x 2024 EBITDA. SHAK, BROS, and CMG average is 27x 2024 consensus estimates. As the stock gets seasoned as a public company, the CAVA IPO bubble will eventually burst. The next critical data point will be the 2Q23 earnings call, where the experiences management team needs to put up the numbers and convivence the street they deserve that valuation.  

Knapp Track Casual Dining June

1. June 2023 Same-Store Sales accelerated 190bps MoM to 5.2%, and the 2-year stack decelerated (170bps) to 2.9%. 
2. June 2023 Same-Store Traffic accelerated 280bps MoM to (-1.9%), and the 2-year stack decelerated (140bps) to (-3.9%).
3. 2Q23 Same-Store Sales decelerated 589bps MoM to 2.9%, and the 2-year stack decelerated (914bps) to 3.6%.
4. Texas and Florida continue to underperform California    

                    COMP SALES                  COMP GUEST COUNTS

USA                          5.2%                                          -1.9%         

CALIFORNIA            6.9%                                          0.6%                    

TEXAS                      4.6%                                          -3.2%

FLORIDA                   3.2%                                          -3.6%