Politics. It is hard to ignore. This political cycle, which unofficially begins Tuesday, will be unusual. Hell, it is already a little weird.
We are only a year out from national nominating conventions and it appears that at least a significant minority of voters would prefer to see the leading candidates from both parties spend more time with their grandchildren.
The president is the leader of the Democratic party and as such should be the nominee. His competition Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., however, is polling in the 20s. Not the fringe candidate one normally sees trying to unseat an incumbent. Of course, then there is California Governor Gavin Newsom whose leading role as a surrogate looks more like a replacement.
The contenders for the Republican nomination have that ensemble cast vibe whose first mission appears to be shedding the albatross that is former president Donald Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis is taking aim at the Trump Public Health Emergency response and contrasting it with his own while former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie goes all in with tri-state thuggery. Meanwhile, Sen. Tim Scott, Mr. Vivek Ramaswamy and former governor Nikki Haley offer a vision on hope and opportunity.
We have our doubts that President Biden makes it to the general election. His frailty and other personal problems are being openly discussed now. The American economy under a new monetary policy regime is not likely to cooperate. If his campaign makes good on its threat not to be listed on Iowa and New Hampshire ballots he could start to feel look like Lyndon Johnson.
No one should be surprised. It isn’t just elections that have consequences, it is policies. In many ways we have reached the natural end of many ideas that animated most of the 20th century, for better or worse. By hook or by crook and hopefully by election, the route is now paved for some original thinking by a younger crowd.
It is going to be a very eventful political season.
Policy. Both parties are beginning to wrestle with their records on the three-year long Public Health Emergency. Pandemic policies, formed in the aftermath of 9/11 and nurtured by philanthropic organization and government research agencies were largely ignored.
Instead, new policies were implemented at a scale, speed, and scope unheard of by most responsible public health planners. Naturally, those once-in-a-generation conditions have and will continue to generate important research that so far has touched on issues of safety and efficacy and manufacturing process of vaccines.
That and recent findings on the ventilator associated mortality in New York, Paxlovid driven rebound and immune response are not painting a flattering picture of either Mr. Trump's or President Biden's management of the problem.
The “we did our best” argument is slowly being defeated by FOIA requests and First Amendment lawsuits that appear to be pointing toward something that looks more like an effort to conceal some really bad decisions.
Gov. DeSantis and Mr. Kennedy have both made the Biden and Trump pandemic responses central features of their primary efforts. Into that vortex is being dragged the pharmaceutical industry, generally, and to a lesser degree (so far) the biotechnology research sector. Medical societies and their heavy influence on the practice of medicine are probably next.
While trust – a key component of health care – is taking a beating, the silver lining is a preoccupation with what happened and preventing a recurrence is not likely to leave much time or interest in anything else health care related.
We will wait to see if that is a good or bad thing.
Power. As change or reckoning or whatever this period we are entering is, it will be helpful to remind ourselves the American political system is designed for conflict. The checks and balances of a tripart division of power is essentially a set-up for conflict, some lasting a hundred years.
The distribution of power between the federal government and the states is also designed for conflict as power shifts back and forth and among. For people that wish we were more like Denmark, it is uncomfortable. Predictions about end-times and other nonsense ignores just how America’s political systems operate.
What is more, it is a system based on certain ideas or concepts rather than a certain person or position – although you might be forgiven for missing that part the last couple of decades.
There is no greater reminder of all that than the Fourth of July, a holiday that celebrates the culmination of certain 18th century events that emerged from some original thinking amongst new and emerging leaders of the colonial era.
Not perfect. Just better than everything else.
Have a great rest of your weekend and a very Happy Fourth of July.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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