THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - April 28, 2011


As advertised, the Bernanke did exactly what we thought he’d do yesterday: (1) Raised his inflation forecast; (1) Cut his GDP forecast and (3) Burned the Buck.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -2.04% downside to 1328 and 0.32% upside to 1360.

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


The Financials remain the only sector broken on both TRADE and TREND.   

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - LEVELS428

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 832 (-530)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 960.95 (+5.67%)
  • VIX:  15.35 -1.73% YTD PERFORMANCE: -13.52%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.21 from 1.15 (+5.28%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 22.25
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06% -0.01%
  • 10-Year: 3.39 from 3.34
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.72 from 2.74 

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 a.m.: GDP 1Q advance, est. 2.0% (annualized), prior 3.1%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Initial jobless claims, est. 395k, prior 403k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Fed’s Duke, Williams speak at Community Affairs Conference in Virginia
  • 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, est. (-43.0), prior (-42.6)
  • 10 a.m.: Pending home sales, est. 1.5% M/m, prior 2.1%
  • 10 a.m.: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30 a.m.: EIA Natural Gas Change
  • 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $29b 7-yr notes

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • New Zealand’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low and called the local currency’s rise “unwelcome.”
  • Most emerging-market stocks fell on concern China will raise interest rates as early as next week.
  • U.S. ‘Disappointed’ by India Rejection of U.S. Aircraft - Bloomberg
  • Google May Overtake Apple in App Sales: All Things Digital
  • Deutsche bank profit exceeds estimates as money management reaches record
  • SAP reports 4.1% gain in first-quarter profit, missing analyst estimate



COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Sugar Seen Capped by Record Thai Production, Curbing Nestle, Kraft Costs
  • Gold Climbs to Record as Bernanke Maintains Stimulus, Dollar Extends Drop
  • Copper Climbs for First Day in Three
  • Aluminum Advances to 32-Month High
  • Crude Oil Futures Retreat From 31-Month High
  • Corn Futures Advance in Chicago as U.S. Midwest May Face ‘Severe Flooding’
  • Sugar Falls as Thai Production May Cap Price Gains; Coffee, Cocoa Advance
  • Rubber Futures Advance for First Day in Four as Fed to Maintain Stimulus
  • Abu Dhabi Oil Surges to Three-Year High on Chinese Demand
  • Copper May Drop Next Week as Stocks Gain, China Demand Slows, Survey Shows

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • German unemployment declines to 19-year low as export boom drives demand
  • German unemployment -37K, est. -37k (prior -55k)  
  • German unemployment rate 7.1%, est. 7.0% (prior 7.1%) 
  • Italian business confidence , est. 103.5 (prior 103.8)
  • European stocks climb as deutsche bank beats analysts’ earnings estimates
  • AstraZeneca first-quarter profit beats analyst estimates after tax accord
  • Spain’s local elections may expose wider deficits in risk for bond markets
  • UK consumer confidence declines to lowest since depth of 2009 recession
  • France Mar consumer spending (0.7%) m/m vs consensus +0.2%

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING EURO

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING EURO

 

 

ASIA PACIFIC MARKTES:

  • Japan quake takes bigger-than-estimated economic toll; BOJ lowers forecast
  • Japanese earnings push the Nikkei 225 to the highest level since the March 11 quake.
  • Asian stocks were mixed
  • Nomura profit falls 35% as investment banking fees, trading income decline
  • Panasonic plans to cut 17,000 jobs on Sanyo acquisition, television losses
  • China economic growth faces risks from property ‘shocks,’ world bank says; China declined for the 5th straight day.
  • China telecom net income climbs 8.1% on increase in mobile-phone customers
  • Grantham sees one-in-four chance of china stumbling over excess spending
  • RBA faces rate pressure as CPI outweighs record currency

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING ASIA

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING ASIA

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


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