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We’re projecting 8-12% YoY growth in Strip revenues assuming fairly normal hold.  WYNN was likely the standout.

Based on McCarran Airport traffic volume growth of 2.2% and our statistical analysis, we believe the Strip will post solid growth for March, despite very high slot hold last year.  Table volume and revenues should drive the upside.  This would represent a turnaround from February when the Strip was down 10%.  We believe WYNN may have captured outsized market share on the high end tables and our EBITDA estimate of $87 million remains the highest on the Street for Wynn/Encore Las Vegas.

WYNN is reporting tonight and its likely strong Las Vegas performance should be good for MGM’s stock.  Moreover, if these Nevada gaming revenues are where we think they are, that also should be a positive catalyst for MGM, assuming they are released in May before MGM reports earnings.  However, we’re don’t think MGM performed nearly as well as WYNN on the gaming side in Q1 so the actual earnings release could disappoint some of the MGM bulls.

Here are our projections:

STRIP LIKELY REBOUNDED IN MARCH - vegas