WYNN should report an all-around monster quarter. Vegas may be the biggest surprise.
What shouldn’t surprise investors is that we are 11% above the Street for Q1 Wynn Macau EBITDA. What may surprise is that we are high on the Street for Las Vegas EBITDA. A combination of strong hold and big volumes may have done the trick in Vegas.
We estimate that WYNN will report 1Q2011 net revenue of $1,230MM and EBITDA of $357MM; 8% and 17% ahead of Street estimates.
WYNN Macau
We project that Wynn & Encore Macau will report net revenue of $874MM and EBITDA of $292MM in 1Q2011, 4% and 11% ahead of Street, respectively
- We estimate gross and net gaming revenues of $1,056MM and $819MM, respectively
- VIP net win of $553MM
- Assuming direct play of 11%, Rolling Chip of $29.5BN (up 46% YoY and 7% sequentially) and hold of 2.7%
- Rebate rate of 80bps
- Mass table win of $191MM
- Table volume of $798MM and hold of 24%
- Slot win of $74MM
- Handle of $1.43BN and win% of 5.2%
- Non-gaming revenue, net of promotional expenses of $55MM
- Variable expenses of $462MM ($411MM of gaming taxes and $45MM of incremental junket commissions above the rebate)
- $26MM of recorded expenses for non-gaming revenues
- Fixed expenses of $94MM
WYNN Las Vegas
We estimate that Wynn Las Vegas will report $356MM of net revenues and $87MM of EBITDA, 6% and 18% above the Street, respectively.
- We estimate net casino revenues of $172MM
- Table win of $160MM; table drop up 20% YoY to $668MM and hold of 24%
- Slot win of $45MM; volume up 10% YoY to $742MM and 6% hold
- Discounts and other of 16% or $33MM
- $239MM of non casino revenue and $55MM of promotional expenses
- $53MM of SG&A and $5MM of doubtful accounts
Other stuff:
- Corporate expense: $22MM
- D&A: $101MM
- Stock comp: $8MM
- Net Interest expense: $58MM
