THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK
TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - April 7, 2011
Dear Ben: Call Glen because a hawkish policy works! - from Bloomberg news “Australia Adds 37,800 Jobs in March, Sending Currency to Highest on Record.” As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.79% downside to 1325 and 0.48% upside to 1342.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
We are on day 4 of perfect with 9 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 9 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 420 (+95)
- VOLUME: NYSE 885.55 (+6.61%)
- VIX: 16.90 -2.87% YTD PERFORMANCE: -4.79%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.69 from 2.15 (-21.10%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
Treasury 10-year yields little changed at 3.56%, adding 10 bps this week on speculation Fed may raise rates earlier than expected; bonds started day weaker.
- TED SPREAD: 24.70 +1.014 (4.282%)
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06% -0.01%
- 10-Year: 3.56 from 3.50
- YIELD CURVE: 1.49 from 1.69
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 8:20 a.m.: Fed’s Lacker speaks in Roanoke
- 8:30 a.m.: Jobless claims, est. 385k, prior 388k
- 8:30 a.m.: Net export sales
- 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior (-46.9)
- 10:30 a.m.: EIA Natural Gas, est. (-52), prior 12
- 3 p.m.: Consumer Credit, est. $4.6b
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Citigroup Inc. (C), the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, is seeking to expand its commodity investment-product team by a third over the next two years to tap growing demand as copper, gold and cotton rise to records.
- Energy companies prepare to fight Alberta over its plans to revoke their oil-sands leases - Globe and Mail
- Bullish sentiment among individual investors rose to 43.6% this week, highest since week of Feb. 17
- Portugal rescue package is likely to be €75B-€90B -- Dow Jones, citing sources
- GE to Build Biggest U.S. Solar Panel Plant, N.Y. Times Reports
- Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto said that the continuation of the Fed’s current monetary policy is warranted and that she favors a public inflation target.
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- World Food Prices Seen Rebounding to Record After Grains Rally, UN Says
- Cotton Surges by Exchange Limit on Concern U.S. Stockpiles Might Shrink
- Copper Gains for Third Day as Rio Fuels Speculation on China Demand's Pace
- Brent Crude Oil Futures Halt Five-Day Advance in London on Demand Concern
- Wheat Advances as Dry Weather in U.S. Great Plains May Reduce Production
- Gold, Near Record, May Advance on Concern About European Debts, Inflation
- Coffee Rises as Export Shipments May Start to Slow; Sugar Prices Advance
- Corn Seen Outperforming Wheat, Soybeans, Cotton as China Doubles Imports
- Diversified Commodity ETPs Got Record $5.2 Billion Inflows in 1st Quarter
- Shipping Rates for Coal Cargoes to Japan Seen Rising 55%: Freight Markets
- Gasoline Demand at Eight-Year Low May Threaten 2011 Rally: Energy Markets
- Ethanol Makers Say Libya War Boosts Profits, Concern U.S. Subsidies to End
- British pound traded near two-week high vs dollar before BoE’s interest-rate announcement
- Europe rises as Portugal seeks bailout and before ECB is forecast to raise interest rates 25bp.
- Germany Feb Industrial output +1.6% m/m vs consensus +0.50% and prior revised to +2.00% from +1.80%
ASIA PACIFIC MARKTES:
- Asian stocks are little changed as Bank of Japan keeps credit program, asset-purchase fund unchanged.
- Australian Job Growth in March Sends Currency to Record High
- China benchmark index reaches 5-month high
- Japan was flat after two days of losses.
- Japan March foreign reserves $1.11T, +$24.54B m/m. Overnight call rate left unchanged at 0-0.1%. Australia March employment +37,800 vs consensus +22K. March unemployment 4.9% vs cons 5.0%.