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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - April 7, 2011

Dear Ben: Call Glen because a hawkish policy works! - from Bloomberg news “Australia Adds 37,800 Jobs in March, Sending Currency to Highest on Record.”  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.79% downside to 1325 and 0.48% upside to 1342.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

We are on day 4 of perfect with 9 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 9 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.    

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING GLOBAL

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING GLOBAL

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 420 (+95)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 885.55 (+6.61%)
  • VIX:  16.90 -2.87% YTD PERFORMANCE: -4.79%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.69 from 2.15 (-21.10%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

Treasury 10-year yields little changed at 3.56%, adding 10 bps this week on speculation Fed may raise rates earlier than expected; bonds started day weaker. 

  • TED SPREAD: 24.70 +1.014 (4.282%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06% -0.01%
  • 10-Year: 3.56 from 3.50
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.49 from 1.69

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:20 a.m.: Fed’s Lacker speaks in Roanoke
  • 8:30 a.m.: Jobless claims, est. 385k, prior 388k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Net export sales
  • 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior (-46.9)
  • 10:30 a.m.: EIA Natural Gas, est. (-52), prior 12
  • 3 p.m.: Consumer Credit, est. $4.6b 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Citigroup Inc. (C), the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, is seeking to expand its commodity investment-product team by a third over the next two years to tap growing demand as copper, gold and cotton rise to records. 
  • Energy companies prepare to fight Alberta over its plans to revoke their oil-sands leases - Globe and Mail
  • Bullish sentiment among individual investors rose to 43.6% this week, highest since week of Feb. 17
  • Portugal rescue package is likely to be €75B-€90B -- Dow Jones, citing sources
  • GE to Build Biggest U.S. Solar Panel Plant, N.Y. Times Reports
  • Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto said that the continuation of the Fed’s current monetary policy is warranted and that she favors a public inflation target.

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • World Food Prices Seen Rebounding to Record After Grains Rally, UN Says
  • Cotton Surges by Exchange Limit on Concern U.S. Stockpiles Might Shrink
  • Copper Gains for Third Day as Rio Fuels Speculation on China Demand's Pace
  • Brent Crude Oil Futures Halt Five-Day Advance in London on Demand Concern
  • Wheat Advances as Dry Weather in U.S. Great Plains May Reduce Production
  • Gold, Near Record, May Advance on Concern About European Debts, Inflation
  • Coffee Rises as Export Shipments May Start to Slow; Sugar Prices Advance
  • Corn Seen Outperforming Wheat, Soybeans, Cotton as China Doubles Imports
  • Diversified Commodity ETPs Got Record $5.2 Billion Inflows in 1st Quarter
  • Shipping Rates for Coal Cargoes to Japan Seen Rising 55%: Freight Markets
  • Gasoline Demand at Eight-Year Low May Threaten 2011 Rally: Energy Markets
  • Ethanol Makers Say Libya War Boosts Profits, Concern U.S. Subsidies to End

CURRENCIES

  • British pound traded near two-week high vs dollar before BoE’s interest-rate announcement

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • Europe rises as Portugal seeks bailout and before ECB is forecast to raise interest rates 25bp.
  • Germany Feb Industrial output +1.6% m/m vs consensus +0.50% and prior revised to +2.00% from +1.80%

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING EURO

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING EURO

ASIA PACIFIC MARKTES:

  • Asian stocks are little changed as Bank of Japan keeps credit program, asset-purchase fund unchanged.
  • Australian Job Growth in March Sends Currency to Record High
  • China benchmark index reaches 5-month high
  • Japan was flat after two days of losses.
  • Japan March foreign reserves $1.11T, +$24.54B m/m. Overnight call rate left unchanged at 0-0.1%. Australia March employment +37,800 vs consensus +22K. March unemployment 4.9% vs cons 5.0%.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING ASIA

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING ASIA

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 47

Howard Penney

Managing Director