TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - March 25, 2011
The tone coming from the European and Asian markets are leading the US futures higher. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 30 points or -1.73% downside to 1287 and 0.56% upside to 1317.
PERFORMANCE:
As of the close yesterday we have 4 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 9 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.
- One day: Dow +0.70%, S&P +0.93%, Nasdaq +1.41%, Russell 2000 +0.72%
- Month-to-date: Dow (0.46%), S&P (1.32%), Nasdaq (1.65%), Russell (0.77%)
- Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +5.12%, S&P +4.14%, Nasdaq +3.15%, Russell +4.27%
- Sector Performance: - Tech +1.56%, Consumer Disc +1.47%, Healthcare +1.18%, Industrials +1.04%, Consumer Spls +0.92%, Financials +0.49%, Materials +0.44%, Utilities +0.42%, Energy +0.36%
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 937 (+634)
- VOLUME: NYSE 870.60 (-0.91%)
- VIX: 18.00 -6.10% YTD PERFORMANCE: +1.41%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.23 from 1.40 (+59.41%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
Treasuries were weaker for a sixth consecutive session despite significant MACRO headwinds.
- TED SPREAD: 23.55 + 0.101 (0.432%)
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.09%
- 10-Year: 3.42 from 3.36
- YIELD CURVE: 2.70 from 2.66
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 7:30 a.m.: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Brussels (also at 1 p.m.)
- 8:30 a.m.: Fed’s Evans speaks to reporters at Chicago Fed
- 8:30 a.m.: GDP, est. QoQ 3.0%, prior 2.8%
- 9:15 a.m.: Fed’s Lockhart speaks on economy in Fla.
- 9:55 a.m.: UMich Confidence
- 12 noon: Annual revisions: Industrial Production
- 12:15 p.m.: Fed’s Plosser speaks on monetary policy
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Reactor core may be breached at damaged Fukushima power plant
- NATO to take command of no-fly zone in Libya
- Oracle rises in late trading after forecasting fourth- quarter earnings that beat estimates
- Quarterly estimate of hog inventories from Department of Agriculture
- RIM falls 13% in late trading after forecasting first- quarter earnings that missed estimates
- VIX has dropped for six straight days
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:
- CRB: 358.48 +0.41% YTD: +7.72%
- Oil: 105.60 -0.14%; YTD: +13.03% (trading +0.15% in the AM)
- COPPER: 442.45 -0.09%; YTD: -0.36% (trading -0.01% in the AM)
- GOLD: 1,433.60 -0.29%; YTD: +1.03% (trading +0.05% in the AM)
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Pork Rally Fails to Spur Expansion at U.S. Hog Farms After Feed Costs Gain
- Cows in Japan Barred From Grazing as Radiation Leaks From Fukushima Plant
- Russia Says Won’t Lift Grain Export Embargo Until After Harvest is Reaped
- Wheat Climbs on ‘Surprise’ Purchases From China, Concern Over Dry Weather
- Pan Pacific Copper Will Restart Hitachi Refinery Hurt by Quake Next Month
- Oil Trades Near Two-Day High on Libya Conflict; JPMorgan Raises Forecast
- Beef Imports by Japan Set to Climb as Food Radiation Risk Roils Consumers
- Palm Oil Set for Weekly Decline as Malaysian Exports Drop, Inventory Gains
- Gold May Climb to Record for Second Day as Silver Trades Near 31-Year High
- Coffee Exports From Vietnam Pegged at 150,000 Tons in March, Agency Says
- Copper May Drop, Paring Weekly Advance, on Concern About Recovery's Pace
- Coal May Advance on Rising Trend Channel, Fibonacci: Technical Analysis
- Rice Exports From Vietnam Forecast at 650,000 Tons in March, Agency Says
- Gold May Advance Next Week on Libya, Europe Debt Concern, Survey Shows
CURRENCIES:
- EURO: 1.4188 +0.45% (trading -0.11%% in the AM)
- DOLLAR: 75.656 -0.18% (trading +0.21% in the AM)
EUROPEAN MARKETS:
European markets continue to trade higher; EU leaders agreeing the EuroZone bailout fund needed to throw more good money after bad. Today’s notable stand outs are Greece trading up over 2% and Italy slightly lower. The Ifo institute said its business climate index declined to 111.1 from 111.3 in February, which was the highest reading since records for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
MACRO: France Q4 GDP +0.4% vs preliminary +0.3%; Germany Feb Import Prices +11.9% vs consensus +11.7% and prior +11.8% and France Mar Consumer Confidence 83 vs consensus 84 and prior 85
- United Kingdom: +0.63%
- Germany: +0.68%
- France: +0.36%
- Spain: +0.28%
- Greece +2.13%
- Italy: -0.07%
ASIAN MARKTES:
Most Asian market traded higher, with the exception of Vietnam and Indonesia down -0.78% and -0.13%, respectively.
MACRO: Japan February core CPI (0.3%) y/y, matching expectations; Tokyo March core CPI (0.3%) vs (0.4%) consensus and February corporate services price index (1.0%) y/y vs consensus (1.2%).
- Japan: +1.07%
- Hang Seng: +1.06%
- Australia +0.91%
- China: +1.06%
- India: +2.53%
- Taiwan: +0.40%
- South Korea +0.85%
Howard Penney
Managing Director
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