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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - March 25, 2011


The tone coming from the European and Asian markets are leading the US futures higher.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 30 points or -1.73% downside to 1287 and 0.56% upside to 1317.

PERFORMANCE:

                   

As of the close yesterday we have 4 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 9 of 9 sectors positive on TREND. 

  • One day: Dow +0.70%, S&P +0.93%, Nasdaq +1.41%, Russell 2000 +0.72%
  • Month-to-date: Dow (0.46%), S&P (1.32%), Nasdaq (1.65%), Russell (0.77%)
  • Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +5.12%, S&P +4.14%, Nasdaq +3.15%, Russell +4.27%
  • Sector Performance: - Tech +1.56%, Consumer Disc +1.47%, Healthcare +1.18%, Industrials +1.04%, Consumer Spls +0.92%, Financials +0.49%, Materials +0.44%, Utilities +0.42%, Energy +0.36%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 937 (+634)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 870.60 (-0.91%)
  • VIX:  18.00 -6.10% YTD PERFORMANCE: +1.41%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.23 from 1.40 (+59.41%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


Treasuries were weaker for a sixth consecutive session despite significant MACRO headwinds.

  • TED SPREAD: 23.55 + 0.101 (0.432%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.09%
  • 10-Year: 3.42 from 3.36
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.70 from 2.66

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 7:30 a.m.: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Brussels (also at 1 p.m.)
  • 8:30 a.m.: Fed’s Evans speaks to reporters at Chicago Fed
  • 8:30 a.m.: GDP, est. QoQ 3.0%, prior 2.8%
  • 9:15 a.m.: Fed’s Lockhart speaks on economy in Fla.
  • 9:55 a.m.: UMich Confidence
  • 12 noon: Annual revisions: Industrial Production
  • 12:15 p.m.: Fed’s Plosser speaks on monetary policy

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Reactor core may be breached at damaged Fukushima power plant
  • NATO to take command of no-fly zone in Libya
  • Oracle rises in late trading after forecasting fourth- quarter earnings that beat estimates
  • Quarterly estimate of hog inventories from Department of Agriculture
  • RIM falls 13% in late trading after forecasting first- quarter earnings that missed estimates
  • VIX has dropped for six straight days

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 358.48 +0.41% YTD: +7.72%  
  • Oil: 105.60 -0.14%; YTD: +13.03% (trading +0.15% in the AM)
  • COPPER: 442.45 -0.09%; YTD: -0.36% (trading -0.01% in the AM)  
  • GOLD: 1,433.60 -0.29%; YTD: +1.03% (trading +0.05% in the AM)  

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Pork Rally Fails to Spur Expansion at U.S. Hog Farms After Feed Costs Gain
  • Cows in Japan Barred From Grazing as Radiation Leaks From Fukushima Plant
  • Russia Says Won’t Lift Grain Export Embargo Until After Harvest is Reaped
  • Wheat Climbs on ‘Surprise’ Purchases From China, Concern Over Dry Weather
  • Pan Pacific Copper Will Restart Hitachi Refinery Hurt by Quake Next Month
  • Oil Trades Near Two-Day High on Libya Conflict; JPMorgan Raises Forecast
  • Beef Imports by Japan Set to Climb as Food Radiation Risk Roils Consumers
  • Palm Oil Set for Weekly Decline as Malaysian Exports Drop, Inventory Gains
  • Gold May Climb to Record for Second Day as Silver Trades Near 31-Year High
  • Coffee Exports From Vietnam Pegged at 150,000 Tons in March, Agency Says
  • Copper May Drop, Paring Weekly Advance, on Concern About Recovery's Pace
  • Coal May Advance on Rising Trend Channel, Fibonacci: Technical Analysis
  • Rice Exports From Vietnam Forecast at 650,000 Tons in March, Agency Says
  • Gold May Advance Next Week on Libya, Europe Debt Concern, Survey Shows

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.4188 +0.45% (trading -0.11%% in the AM)
  • DOLLAR: 75.656 -0.18% (trading +0.21% in the AM) 

EUROPEAN MARKETS:


European markets continue to trade higher; EU leaders agreeing the EuroZone bailout fund needed to throw more good money after bad.  Today’s notable stand outs are Greece trading up over 2% and Italy slightly lower.  The Ifo institute said its  business climate index declined to 111.1 from 111.3 in February, which was the highest reading since records for a reunified Germany began in 1991.

MACRO: France Q4 GDP +0.4% vs preliminary +0.3%; Germany Feb Import Prices +11.9% vs consensus +11.7% and prior +11.8% and France Mar Consumer Confidence 83 vs consensus 84 and prior 85

  • United Kingdom: +0.63%
  • Germany: +0.68%
  • France: +0.36%
  • Spain: +0.28%
  • Greece +2.13%
  • Italy: -0.07%

ASIAN MARKTES:


Most Asian market traded higher, with the exception of Vietnam and Indonesia down -0.78% and -0.13%, respectively. 

MACRO: Japan February core CPI (0.3%) y/y, matching expectations; Tokyo March core CPI (0.3%) vs (0.4%) consensus and February corporate services price index (1.0%) y/y vs consensus (1.2%).

  • Japan: +1.07%
  • Hang Seng: +1.06%
  • Australia +0.91%
  • China: +1.06%
  • India: +2.53%
  • Taiwan: +0.40%
  • South Korea +0.85%

Howard Penney

Managing Director

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