Lower-lows in my Bitcoin Risk Range ($15,005) and that continues to front-run wealth-effect destruction and a #Quad4 US Recession…
- EURO – almost a perfect positioning and timing setup (again) to short Euros with EUR/USD at the top of my Risk Range on Macro Tourist speak that “it wasn’t Russia, Poland is fine” (seriously?) with non-commercial CFTC Futures & Options positioning registering a +2.7x z-score (TTM), which is the MOST CONSENSUS LONG lean in all of Global Macro now
- CURVE – a bone-chilling -58 on 10s/2s this morning gives us our strongest signal yet that the USA has already entered a #Quad4 Consumption Recession that will not go away at 7.5-7.9% CPI! While the Street begs for the pivot, the short-end (i.e. Fed expectations) hasn’t moved in the last 24 hours – UST 2s stand like Powell’s Volcker Rock at 4.36%
- NASDAQ – I’m old enough to remember last Wednesday… when NASDAQ’s #Quad4 Crash hit a new Cycle Low at -35.5% from its #Quad2 Cycle High. This morning it’s at -29.3% with an ulta-capitulatory (FOMO Retail Chase + Hedge Fund Short Covering) implied volatility DISCOUNT of -26% (vs. 30-day realized) and #NazVol still in the F-Bucket at 30 (with upside to 39!)
I'll be reviewing updates to our macro themes in today's Q4 Mid-Quarter Update presentation at 11AM ET... ping if you’d like access to this deck.
Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.75-4.36%
KM
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