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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 23, 2011

 

Despite a 16.9 % drop in the VIX over the past week, Egypt, Ireland and Portugal are vivid reminders today that the sovereign debt and geo-political risks are not going away.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 33 points or -1.30% downside to 1277 and +1.25% upside to 1310.

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 7 a.m.: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Berlin
  • MBA mortgage applications index rose 2.7% week ended March 18.  Purchases, refis also both up 2.7%
  • 10 a.m.: New home sales, est. 290k, up 2.1%, prior 284k, down 12.6%
  • 10:30 a.m.: DoE inventories
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $5b 56-day cash management bills
  • 12 noon: Bernanke to speak in San Diego   

TODAY’S WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Goldman Chairman Blankfein to be called by U.S. prosecutors to testify as government witness at Raj Rajaratnam’s insider-trading trial as early as this week
  • Allies prepare to attack Qaddafi’s ground forces as the U.S. and its partners try to resolve disputes over who will take over command
  • AirTran holders vote on Southwest takeover offer
  • NFLX website crashes, leaving more than 20m subscribers unable to order films, service later restored
  • Syrian forces clash with protesters killing four people

PERFORMANCE:


The only two sectors that are positive on both TRADE and TREND are Energy and Consumer Staples. 

  • One day: Dow (0.15%), S&P (0.36%), Nasdaq (0.31%), Russell 2000 (0.54%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow (1.70%), S&P (2.52%), Nasdaq (3.54%), Russell (1.80%)
  • Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +3.81%, S&P +2.87%, Nasdaq +1.17%, Russell +3.19%
  • Sector Performance Industrials (0.80%), Consumer Disc (0.79%), Financials (0.53%), Energy (0.22%), Consumer Spls (0.14%), Tech (0.17%), Materials (0.23%), Healthcare (0.05%), Utilities +0.14%.  

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -458 (-2375)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 823.85 (-17.80%)
  • VIX:  20.21 -1.94% YTD PERFORMANCE: +13.86%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.98 from 2.00 (-0.86%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


Treasuries were mostly weaker for a fourth-straight session, though the long-end outperformed.

  • TED SPREAD: 21.98 -0.304 (-1.366%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.10%  
  • 10 Yr: 3.34 from 3.34     
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.66 from 2.67

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 356.45 +0.91% YTD: +7.11%  
  • Oil: 104.97 +1.82%; YTD: +12.94% (trading +0.39% in the AM)
  • COPPER: 431.30 +0.63%; YTD: -1.35% (trading +1.51% in the AM)  
  • GOLD: 1,426.43 -0.06%; YTD: +0.97% (trading +0.49% in the AM)  

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Thailand Planning Fewer Rice Harvests in Pest Fight Means Drop in Exports
  • Crude Oil Trades Near Two-Week High as Alliance Prepares Attacks in Libya
  • Copper Rises for Second Day as Inventory Orders Feed Shortfall Speculation
  • Gold Climbs as Middle East Turbulence and European Debt Crisis Fuel Demand
  • Coffee-Belt Drought in Vietnam May Ease in May on Rains, Forecaster Says
  • China May Match India as World's Biggest Gold Consumer on Investor Demand
  • Wheat Demand in Japan Not Hurt by Earthquake, Agriculture Ministry Says
  • Lead Futures in Shanghai Priced at 18,350 Yuan for First Day of Trading
  • Norwegian, Asian Fish Companies May Benefit From Japan's Radiation Scare
  • U.S. Bans Japan Milk, Fruit Imports From Areas Near Leaking Nuclear Plant
  • Global Dairy Prices May Drop as Record Rally Erodes Demand, Fonterra Warns
  • Palm Oil Production in Malaysia to Increase This Year, Central Bank Sayss

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.4218 -0.04% (trading -0.25%% in the AM)
  • DOLLAR: 75.434 +0.04% (trading +0.09% in the AM) 

EUROPEAN MARKETS:


European stocks are higher, led by Austria and the Netherlands.  Egypt fell 8.97% to lowest level since May 2009, as trading resumes following two-month suspension.

BOE minutes; BOE voted 6-3 to hold rate in March, Dale and Weale voted for +25 bps raise, Sentance +50 bps.

 

  • United Kingdom: +0.54%
  • Germany: +0.19%
  • France: +0.37%
  • Spain: +0.25%
  • Greece +0.20%
  • Italy: +0.35%
  • Portugal -1.43%

ASIAN MARKTES:

 

Asian markets were stronger, with the exception of Japan and South Korea.  Japan fell for first time in four days after levels of radioactive iodine unsafe for infants were reported in Tokyo.

  • Japan: -1.65%
  • Australia +0.19%
  • Singapore: +0.65%
  • Hang Seng: -0.14%
  • China: +1.00%
  • India: +1.21%
  • Taiwan: +0.44%
  • South Korea -0.07%

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3 23 2011 7 21 29 AM


WHAT'S NEXT FOR OIL?: DIAL-IN & MATERIALS

Valued Client,

 

5-10 minutes prior to the 11 AM EDT start time please dial:

(Toll Free) or (Direct)
Conference Code: 117597#

 

Materials: "Click Here"

 

If the hyperlink above does not work, please copy & paste the following link into the URL of your browser:

http://docs.hedgeye.com/Whats%20Next%20For%20Oil.pdf

 

To submit questions for the Q&A, please email .


******************************************************************************

WHAT'S NEXT FOR OIL? 

 

Join Hedgeye's CEO Keith McCullough, Managing Director Daryl G. Jones, and Lou Gagliardi of our ENERGY vertical. The key questions being answered include: 

  • Why has oil been trading off in the last week? What's changed?
  • How should we think about assessing the upheaval in the Middle East as it relates to supply?
  • What are the key long term supply and demand factors to analyze as it relates to future price?
  • What are the implications for other energy markets?
  • What's next for the price of oil?
  • What are the best oil equities to play given the current environment? 

Please contact if you have any questions. 

 

Regards,

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team


Chile’s Lower Highs

Conclusion: We’re short Chilean equities ahead of consensus coming around to our intermediate-term outlook for the slope of both Chilean domestic growth and global growth – negative.

 

While the sell-side runs around like a chicken with their heads cut off recommending buying everything Emerging Markets after they’ve been tagged for the last 3-6 months, we’ll stick to the script until it changes: Growth Slowing as Inflation Accelerates. Of course there will be plenty of buying opportunities once our call gets fully priced into global equity markets; for now, however, we don’t think consensus is in the area code of Bearish Enough.

 

Much like the US, Chile is one economy where consensus gets the “accelerating inflation” component of the thesis, which is highlighted by the Chilean Central Bank being the most hawkish in the world over the last year, raising rates +350bps in response to CPI accelerating from +0.3% YoY in Feb ’10 to +2.7% YoY in Feb ’11.

 

Chile’s Lower Highs - 1

 

The central bank’s recent acceleration of rate increases (from +25bps to +50bps increments) actually caught 19 of 22 forecasting economists off guard, particularly given that they tightened in the face of Japan’s crisis despite Japan being Chile’s second-largest export market. Taking their cue from the central bank, consensus’ CPI forecasts for 2011 are on the rise of late:

 

Chile’s Lower Highs - 2

 

Of course there may be a time over the next year(s) when increased Japanese demand for raw materials is bullish for Chilean Exports, but for now, we will avoid the rookie trap of Duration Mismatch and play the game in front of us, which is one of slowing growth. To be specific, we expect Chilean GDP growth to top out in 1Q and rollover substantially through the end of the year alongside waning global growth fueled by structurally lower levels of Chinese, European, and US demand. Difficult comparisons in 2H11 augment this view.

 

Chile’s Lower Highs - 3

 

Lastly, Chilean equities remain broken from a TRADE & TREND perspective and today’s rally up to another lower-high coincidentally closed just under our immediate-term TRADE line of resistance – a ripe shorting opportunity indeed.

 

Darius Dale

Analyst

 

Chile’s Lower Highs - 4


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Portuguese Government on the Brink

Positions in Europe: Short Italy (EWI); Short Spain (EWP)

 

As an update to our research note on 3/16 titled “Portugal Shakes on Debt Dues”, today we heard from Portugal’s PM Minister Jose Socrates that he increasingly believes that the main opposition party (the centre-right Social Democrats) are not willing to agree with his additional austerity programs to further trim the country’s budget deficit at tomorrow’s parliamentary vote. Socrates has previously announced that if the plan is rejected he would likely resign.

 

Should austerity be voted down tomorrow and Socrates call his resignation, which is looking increasingly probable, we’d expect the political indecision to heighten the need for and shorten the duration of a bailout from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to help shore up a hefty schedule of sovereign debt coming due over the next months (see chart below).

 

Socrates and his minority Socialist party’s new austerity plans aim to control operational and administrative expenses in the public sector. Given that the government on Monday recognized that annual GDP in 2011 will be -0.9%, versus a previous estimate of +0.2%, the government’s deficit reduction program over the next three years looks increasingly overly “optimistic”, as negative growth will further impair revenues need to pay down its deficits. The government’s budget deficit plan is: from 9.3% of GDP in 2009 to 7.3% in 2010, 4.6% in 2011, and to the EU limit of 3% in 2012.

 

If Socrates were to resign, a general election would follow; given the country’s constitution snap elections could be held at the earliest 55 days after called.

 

Tomorrow could well be another volatile day for Portugal and across European markets. Keep your head up.

 

Matthew Hedrick

Analyst

 

Portuguese Government on the Brink - por1

 

Portuguese Government on the Brink - por2   


CCL 1Q 2011 CONF CALL NOTES

 

Bookings and forward pricing have been relatively strong but no visibility on Middle East impact.

 

 

"Despite the uncertain world events that have unfolded during our peak booking period, we have experienced a solid wave season.  Ticket prices for the peak summer season remain particularly strong. The convenience and affordability of a cruise vacation continues to gain recognition as consumers discover the unrivaled experience cruising offers. As a result, long-term fundamentals for our business remain attractive in an environment where consumers increasingly value the importance of taking their holidays. [On 1Q results] Net revenue yields increased 2 percent (constant dollars) driven by a significant improvement in ticket prices for our European brands. We remained focused on managing costs and reducing fuel consumption. All of which more than offset rising fuel prices during the quarter."

- Micky Arison, Carnival Corporation & plc Chairman and CEO


HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • 1Q2011 results:
    • EPS: $0.19
    • Constant dollar net revenue yields: +2% (in-line with guidance)
    • Gross revenue yields: +2.4%
    • Constant dollar net cruise costs (ex. fuel): +1% (higher than guidance of flat to +1%)
    • Fuel: +9% to $543/metric ton (vs. guidance of $526), costing $0.05 EPS
  • 2Q2011 guidance
    • Constant dollar net revenue yields: +1.5% to 2.5% (+4.5% to 5.5% on current dollar basis)
    • Constant dollar net cruise costs (ex. fuel): +2-3%
    • Fuel: $659/metric ton
      • Fuel costs for Q2: $140MM or $0.18 EPS drag
    • EPS: $0.20-0.24 (Consensus: $0.33)
  • FY2011 guidance:
    • Diluted EPS: $2.55-2.65 (above March 11 guidance of $2.50-2.60)
    • Constant dollar net revenue yields: +2.5% to 3.5% (lower than guidance of +3% to 4%)
    • Current dollar net revenue yields: +4.5 to 5.5%
    • Constant dollar net cruise costs (ex. fuel): flat to +1% (higher than guidance of -0.5% to +0.5%)
      • Slightly lower expectations in other cost categories are expected to offset the slightly higher net cruise costs guidance
    • Fuel: $631/metric ton (higher than guidance of $527/metric ton)
      • Fuel costs for FY2011: an increase of $355MM over previous guidance or +$489MM, costing $0.45 EPS.
      • However, a weaker US$ since guidance will benefit earnings by $75MM or $0.09 EPS
    • Debut of 2 ships in 2Q: AIDA Sol and Carnival Magic

CONF CALL NOTES 

  • Capacity increased 5%; EAA brands up 11% (9% coming from South America); NA brands up 2%
  • In 1Q: 4 cent benefit from cost cutting measures; 2 cent adverse effect from fuel
  • Ticket yields
    • NA brands: down because of higher Caribbean capacity;
  • Normalized on-board spend and other yields: +3%
  • 2011FY guidance:
    • Seeing inflationary pressures in crew travel, food costs, freight and other areas
    • Interest expense, taxes and depreciation are lower, which offset some of the inflationary pressures.
    • 10% change in the price of fuel for the remaining three quarters of 2011 represents a $0.22 per share impact.  With respect to FX movement, a 10% change in all currencies relative to the U.S. dollar and also for the remaining three quarters of would also impact our P&L by $0.22 per share. 
  • 2011 booking picture: occupancies are slightly lower than a year ago on a 5% increase in Cruise capacity for the next three quarters.  Ticket pricing for these bookings are nicely higher than last year.
  • North American occupancy is slightly behind last year with higher pricing.  Bookings for EAA are also slightly behind at last year at higher prices.
  • North American wave bookings have paced the increased North American capacity with solid increases in YoY pricing.  In EAA, bookings have also been higher during this wave period at approximately the same YoY prices.
  • However,  the booking pace has lagged the 8.6% capacity increase for the period
  • Middle East unrest:
    • 280 cruises had to be reset
    • $0.05 EPS adverse impact
  • 2Q guidance
    • Fleet-wide capacity: +5%, +2.9% NA, +8.6% EAA
    • Occupancy flat
    • NA brands: 55% Caribbean
    • NA pricing: higher YoY; occ. flat
    • Caribbean pricing: slightly lower than 2Q 2010
    • EAA brands: 54% European
    • EAA pricing: higher YoY
    • Fleet-wide local currency revenue yields will be higher for both NA and EAA brands.
    • European yields higher YoY but lower than originally expected due to ME unrest
  • 3Q guidance:
    • Capacity: +4.8%, +3.4% NA, +7.2% EAA
    • Pricing ahead with lower occupancies
    • NA brands: 36% Caribbean, down from 41%; 23% in Alaska; 25% in Europe
    • EAA brands: 88% European
    • Pricing for all North American brands itineraries in the third quarter is ahead of last year, with particularly higher occupancy than pricing in this year's Alaska season.
    • Caribbean pricing higher YoY, but on lower occupancies.  
    • EAA pricing is nicely ahead of last year at slightly lower occupancies. 
    • EAA bookings in the last five to six weeks have been challenging.
    • Fleetwide pricing up for both NA and EAA
  • 4Q guidance:
    • Capacity: +5.9%, +3.3% NA, +10.1% EAA
    • Pricing higher YoY, occu. lower YoY
    • NA brands: 42% Caribbean, down from 50%; 14% in Europe; 10% Asia
    • Pricing NA: higher YoY; lower occupancies
    • EAA brand: 72% European, up from 65%
    • Pricing EAA: higher YoY
    • Occupancies are lower for Europe, not surprising given the 20% increase in European brand deployment for 4Q

Q&A

  • Pulled out of all North African stops in Tunisia and Morocco and Egypt.
  • Slowdown last 2 weeks: It's Ibero and Costa with heavy emphasis on North Africa and Middle East itineraries.
  • NA brands reaction to ME unrest has been "muted"
  • Still hard to judge ME impact--"too much noise"
  • Guidance: Lower occupancies to compensate for higher prices
  • FY 2011: FCF of $1BN; 2011 dividend would be $700MM
  • Board will decide any share buybacks or dividends
  • Starting process of rethinking fuel hedging program
  • NA pricing: good strength in those premium brands for longer cruises, European programs, Alaska programs and for Caribbean programs
  • Higher ticket prices could be due to strong demand for Alaska
  • Europe bookings strong despite lower occupancies
  • D&A and interest expense downward revision:
    • Some brands were aggressive about when they would put those maintenance CapEx items into service.  We saw some favorable impact in 1Q and we flowed that through for the year.  It's just a timing of when things go into service. Same reasoning for interest expense (i.e. favorable impact in 1Q)
      • Tapping commercial paper market more aggressively
  • ME unrest positively impacting Alaska? No. Strong bookings were already in place. Plus, capacity is down in Alaska.
  • Northern Europe doing well.
  • Caribbean pricing is holding up better with lower capacity in summer.
  • Costs are also higher in 2Q due to higher advertising expense, not due to rebooking trends.
    • Their cost forecasts are derived from projections from 10 Miami companies, which are usually conservative.
  • 3Q yield guidance down half a point due to Middle East
  • Comfortable with 2-3 new ships/year
  • Higher end consumer driving pricing
  • Ex ME, booking window as expected.
  • 2012 bookings are encouraging at this time
  • Caribbean pricing is strong in 4Q

Short Selling Opportunity: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITION: Short SPY

 

We like to put our research views on the tape. That’s what I did on March 16th in a note titled “Short Covering Opportunity.” That’s what I am doing right here and now immediately after shorting the SP500.

 

While our fundamental view of Global Growth Slowing As Inflation Accelerates is becoming a consensus, that doesn’t mean consensus can’t keep being right where it matters most – in being priced into the US stock market.

 

Alongside The Bernank perpetuating The Inflation we’ve seen a breakout in Price Volatility (VIX). Amidst the 3-day rally we just saw in US stocks from their immediate-term TRADE oversold lows, the VIX has held its intermediate-term TREND line of 18.03.

 

This is not an ‘end of the world’ short position. I think of it as a high-reward versus risk short position that I can average up into if today’s spot isn’t precisely right. Provided that the SP500 doesn’t close above my TRADE and TREND lines of 1310 and 1343, respectively, Mr. Macro Market also supports this message with bearish immediate-term price momentum.

 

For the intermediate-term, I see a 6% risk management range developing between 1.

 

Short/Sell high within that range, and Cover/Buy low.

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Short Selling Opportunity: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - 1


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.61%
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