"A good man always knows his limitations" ~ Dirty Harry
Politics. November 8th was the day it ended.
The incompetency of the Trump administration, its abject failure in attracting and retaining talent and its chaotic policy making process was masked for almost seven years by a media obsession that stoked partisan theatrics among people who like starring in their own movie.
(To be fair to Donald Trump, recall that early in 2017, Clinton administration hopefuls – many former Obama officials – formed groups like Indivisible that pledged to end the career of anyone who worked for the Trump White House. Also to be fair, there were some policy accomplishments that represent forward progress of the nation.)
As it turns out, Trump was not the Manchurian Candidate, Russia’s meddling was non-partisan and inept. The 2020 election was not “stolen” but likely suffered from a certain amount of immaterial pandemic policy-related irregularities.
Trump is the manifestation of voters’ dissatisfaction with their choices. For fifteen years, all the donor network and party machineries could come up with were endlessly recycled Clintons and Bushes with an Obama interlude.
He gets credit for sending to the wilderness, for at least a time, bland politicians with few original ideas and even less creativity.
He also gets credit for creating an opening for a new generation of political leaders. Not something he intended, of course, but there it is.
It helps tremendously that his appeal to voters, absent good alternatives, did not extend to his endorsements of Senate candidates. If anything, it appears to have substituted the bland, unoriginal politician with an unelectable one.
Donald Trump will no doubt announce his presidential intentions this week, but he will not be alone. A new generation of politicians have emerged, thanks to Donald Trump, and they have no intention or need to be deferential to the man that made some of it possible.
Policy. The race for the majority on both sides of the Hill will probably end by the hair of its chinny, chin, chin. “Playing it safe,” is now the policy priority for Republicans with more of the same from Democrats.
There isn’t really an option. With the Republicans in charge of the House, the go-to tool for sweeping legislation, budget reconciliation, is off the table. Regular order legislation will require bipartisan agreement – which does happen, although the way everyone behaves, you would never know it.
Most policy development will continue to be left to the bureaucracy. Medicare Advantage plans will continue to enjoy their favored status with CMS. Service providers may get some love from Congress to address inflation pressures. Other things, like large scale overhauls of Medicare will have to wait. The Public Health Emergency, now extended to April, will continue the easy money policies for health care.
Bound together by a desire for a new president, both parties will spend a lot of time doing everything they can not to appear in opposition ads.
Power. If we can count Donald Trump as one of Tuesday night’s biggest casualty, a close runner-up is the purported “threats” to democracy. With the exceptions of Nevada, California and Arizona, things appear to have gone pretty smoothly.
Turnout was high. Results were readily available in most places. Poll workers survived the day unmolested. Above all, concession phone calls and speeches were gracious and unqualified.
Rejection is difficult under any circumstance but for political candidates it is definitive, irreversible and very, very public. You lose and everyone knows it.
Treating voters like your worst boyfriend is a trend we are happy to see end and candidates who reject that approach will be richly rewarded.
Have a great rest of your weekend.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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