Top of the Funnel | Marco Data, Policy Position Monitor
CPI. The Consumer Price Index that unleashed this rally is pretty imperfect, which I suppose it is not favored by the Fed for policy decisions. It is particularly imperfect for assessing the cost of health care because - well, it is health care. CPI-M has two components, services and commodities. The services portion has been on a tear since last year but took an unusual drop in October of 0.60bps.That decline was due to a dramatic 4% deceleration in the health insurance component which was subject to a "periodic adjustment." CPI-M is a small portion of CPI - about 8.5% - and health insurance is about 0.90% of that so the materiality of the adjustment for overall inflation is about 5.5 bps. However, health care occupied a larger role in the PCE index favored by the Fed and this adjustment will not make its way into PCE.
Health Care Inflation Chartbook here.
CONGRESS.
Oversight. The conclusion Republicans will take the House majority seems to be without question. How much of a majority is the money question and determines just how much time is allocated to the party’s priorities.
Health care has dropped well down the list, for both parties, so no new initiatives are likely. What is likely is a little oversight. The watchdog agencies have already raised concerns about fraud, waste and abuse with respect to Provider Relief Funds.
Other areas of inquiry are likely to focus on the CDC’s guidance, especially as it relates to school closures
The Senate majority remains an unknown until December so we must wait and see but as we have already noted, Sen. Ron Johnson has made vaccine injury a priority.
THE WHITE HOUSE.
PHE. (ANTM (-), UNH (-), MOH (-), CNC (-) It won't end before January the White House tells us. At that point the White House could choose to extend until March or earlier. If Republicans control the Senate comes Dec. 7th, then it might end earlier. Either way, it pushes meaningful disenrollment off until late 1Q at the earliest.
RAC Auditors All Over Again? HHS is adding independent arbiters to hear cases under the No Surprises Act. No surprise at all the system has been over-run with complaints. Between April and August, 46k complaints were filed.
It reminds me of the RAC auditing process when claw backs were challenged at such a level that it gummed up the entire administrative appeals process, essentially ending RAC audits. The health care system is too large and the volume of claims so enormous, it is nearly impossible to arbitrate claims quite like the law envisioned.
Other Stuff.
Searchable calendar of published notes and replays can be found here.
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Have a great weekend.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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