[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | Rates / QQQ / Sectors

Both the FX and Bond Market have been pricing in #NoPivot as perma bull stock market narratives beg for one…

1. RATES – UST 2yr Yield is straight back up (+9bps day-over-day) to 4.52% and signaling higher-highs ahead of the much anticipated Fed meeting; whoever was betting on a Dovish Pivot via a steepener just got smoked for the umpteenth time in 2022 with 10s/2s inverting to -48bps – UST 10yr Yield is +11bps from where hopium had it 24hrs ago too
2. NASDAQ – don’t tell anyone but US stocks were DOWN for the 4^th day in 5 as the most widely owned #BubbleCaps in American history continued to crash to lower-lows (i.e. no “tactical bottom” in AMZN or GOOGL); NASDAQ’s #Quad4 Crash is currently -32.2% from its Cycle Peak and #NazVol is at 32 (during the prior 2 bear market bounces, it got down to 25)
3. SECTORS – Long Energy (XLE) vs. Short Consumer Discretionary (XLY) continues to be one of our Core L/S Positions – XLY was down another -1.0% yesterday, crashing to -30.3% YTD (i.e. #NoPivot) and XLE was up another +1.0% to +63.7% YTD as WTI busted a move back above my immediate-term TRADE momentum level of $86.48/barrel

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.90-4.32%

KM