Beer shipments fall (BUD, TAP)
Shipments from U.S. brewers decreased by 0.9% in September despite lapping a 9% decline in September 2021. September was the seventh month of decline in 2022, with just March (1.5%) and August (+2.4%) seeing an increase. YTD brewers have shipped 3.9% fewer barrels of beer than in 2021. At the state level, 30 states saw an increase in beer shipments in September. YTD the best performance has been in Texas (+2.8%), Oregon (+13.6%), and North Carolina (+4%). Texas has had the largest share gain at 0.4 share points while California has seen the largest share loss -0.3 share points. Higher prices will often cause a volume response.
Q3 food store traffic trends (WMT, COST, BJ, KR, ACI)
According to Placer.ai grocery visits fell 3.9% in Q3 while superstore visits fell 2.9% YOY. In Q3 club store traffic gains trailed the discount superstore. The club stores are still benefiting from the pandemic shift to at-home food consumption with traffic and member gains compared to 2019 as seen in the chart below.
The grocery store channel has not held onto the pandemic driven traffic gains as seen in the chart below. With elevated food inflation and higher gas prices consumers have consolidated shopping trips. Supermarkets are losing share to the superstore and club store channels.
On-premise bounce (TAP, BUD, SAM)
The last two weeks ended October 15 have seen a rebound in positive on-premise sales velocity trends according to CGA. Sales velocity increased 8% for the week ended October 15. The last week was driven by average check up 9% while traffic was down 1% YOY.
