[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | China / Rates / Junk

AMZN crashing hard because it’s the one stock that both hedge funds and retail investors owned, together, in #Quad4…

1. CHINA – you either talked about the “Bank of Canada” earlier this week or you paid attention to the Global Macro Data & market Signals – China got crushed this week (post Xi’s power grab and #slowing consumption data), ending on the lows with the Shanghai Comp down another -2.3% overnight and the Hang Seng hammered another -3.7% = Global #Quad4 Recession (in demand, Copper -2%)
2. RATES – so you’re saying there’s a Bank of Canada chance… how about the ECB RAISING BY 75BPS and the German 10yr Yield UP +17BPS in a straight line this morning (Italian 10s +21BPS)? Textbook correction towards the low-end of my UST 2 and 10yr Yield Ranges, then the big bounce to what should be a relentless/sticky inflation read from the US PCE data – Gold and Rate Sensitive Stocks down
3. JUNK BONDS – after all that has happened in #Quad4 (including what MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN said), I can’t believe people were chasing charts in Airline (JETS) Stocks and Junk Bonds (JNK) yesterday – those are GREAT Recession longs, lol – seriously, get serious this morning and re-load on both High Yield (HYG) and JNK as we enter the throat of the #Quad4 in Q4 Profit Recession

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.88-4.32%

KM