THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - March 16, 2011

 

The Hedgeye models have all 9 sectors broken from an immediate-term TRADE perspective.  The last time the the models signaled this was in May of 2010. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 36 points or -0.69% downside to 1273 and 2.12% upside to 1309.

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • MBA mortgage applications index fell 0.7% week ended March 11; purchases down 4%, refis gain 0.9%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Housing starts, est. 566k, prior 596k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Building permits, est. 570k, prior 562k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Producer price index, est. 0.7%, prior 0.8%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Current account balance, est. (-$110b), prior (-$127.2b)
  • 2 p.m.: Geithner talks to House subcommittee on budget

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Netflix is said to be looking at original programming
  • Portugal’s sovereign credit rating cut two steps to A3
  • GE’s target of broadening its $1 billion nuclear service- and-parts business may be under threat after Japanese turmoil
  • Japanese carmakers start to reopen factories.

PERFORMANCE:


As of the close yesterday we have 0 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 6 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.  Utilities, Materials and Technology are broken on both TRADE and TREND. 

  • One day: Dow (1.15%), S&P (1.12%), Nasdaq (1.25%), Russell 2000 (0.86%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow (3.03%), S&P (3.42%), Nasdaq (4.13%), Russell (3.90%)
  • Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +2.40%, S&P +1.93%, Nasdaq +0.55%, Russell +0.98%
  • Sector Performance: - Utilities (1.90%), Tech (1.48%), Financials (1.16%), Healthcare (1.17%), Industrials (0.94%), Consumer Spls (0.88%), Consumer Disc (0.83%), Energy (0.75%), Materials (0.0%)

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1742 (-638)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1288.05 (+33.64%)
  • VIX:  24.32 +13.10% YTD PERFORMANCE: +37.01%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.69 from 1.80 (-6.07%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


Yesterday, treasuries were mostly higher on flight-to-quality buying.

  • TED SPREAD: 22.08 0.101 (0.461%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
  • 10-Year: 3.33 from 3.36
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.70 from 2.75

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 338.14 -3.56% YTD: +1.60%  
  • Oil: 97.18 -3.96%; YTD: +6.08% (trading +1.55% in the AM)
  • COPPER: 413.70 -1.18%; YTD: -4.76% (trading +2.26% in the AM)  
  • GOLD: 1,394.75 -2.15%; YTD: -1.37% (trading +0.28% in the AM)  

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Commodities Advance, Snapping Four Days of Losses, as Oil Gains on Mideast
  • Rubber Rallies From Four-Month Low in Tokyo as Bridgestone Resumes Output
  • Copper Advances on Prospects for Japan Rebuilding After Quake: LME Preview
  • Sugar Rises on Reduced Concern Commodities Demand May Slow; Coffee Gains
  • Corn Importers in Japan Delaying Purchases After Quake, Unipac Grain Says
  • WHO Says No Evidence of Significant Radiation Spread from Japan Reactors
  • Cotton Advances by Limit as 6.8% Slide Over Past Two Days Attracts Buyers
  • Gold Rises on Decline to a One-Month Low, Concern About Bahrain and Japan
  • Oil Rises as Bahrain Violence Spurs Concern Middle East Supplies at Risk
  • Japan’s Rebuilding Process to Trigger Demand for Rubber, Budhraja Says
  • Hong Kong Moms Empty Shelves of Japanese Baby Formula Amid Nuclear Scare

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3977 +0.09% (trading -0.35% in the AM)
  • DOLLAR: 76.328 -0.03% (trading +0.27% in the AM) 

EUROPEAN MARKETS:


Europe is trading mixed today, with the exception of Eastern Europe.

European inflation accelerated to the fastest in more than two years in February

Moody's downgraded Portugal's long-term debt rating to A3 from A1

  • United Kingdom: -0.67%
  • Germany: -0.15%
  • France: -0.80%
  • Spain: -1.02
  • Italy: -0.70
  • Greece: +1.95%

ASIAN MARKTES:


Most Asian market traded higher. 

Vietnam was the standout to the downside trading down 1.1%.

  • Japan: +5.68%
  • Hang Seng: +0.10%
  • China: +1.19%
  • India: +1.05%
  • Taiwan: +1.09%

Howard Penney

Managing Director