[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | 2s / Australia / 35 Vol

Macro Tourists have 3 hours left to take off whatever they were trading for NFP and move to CPI next week…

1. UST 2yr – yield is up a monster +25 basis points from the bs “pivot” narrative people were pushing on Monday morning (UK yields have gone vertical again too), so The Setup here is simple: A) dovish jobs print might get you back to the 4.01% level (and it might last an hour) or B) hawkish print and the front-end ramps to new Cycle Highs of 4.37% (and equity bulls crash, again)
2. AUSTRALIA – what if A) the print is dovish and B) the Fed came out TODAY and pivoted to 50bps instead of 75? Australia did that this week -there was a 2-day bear market bounce off crashed out lows… and, on the 3^rd day, Australian Stocks failed @Hedgeye TRADE and TREND resistance, closing down -0.8% with fresh Cycle Lows in my Risk Range
3. 35 VOLATILITY – that’s what PMs who are still long NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are dealing with this morning – F-Bucket = #NazVol (equivalent of VIX) went out at 35.84 and #RussVol at 35.91 – and everyone can’t wait to buy stocks this week? Wow. If/when the VIX is at 35, you’ll have new Cycle Lows in the US stock market too with a nasty #Quad4 Earnings Season pending

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.54-4.01%

KM