Post-Pandemic: What Is the New Normal? NewsWire

NewsWire: 10/7/22

• Concert-going has bounced back to pre-pandemic levels, but theater-going has not. We’re slowly seeing the emergence of a “new normal” as Americans resume some of their pre-Covid activities, but not all. (The Washington Post)
• NH: According to a recent survey by Axios-Ipsos, 65% of Americans believe there is hardly any risk in returning to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. And 46% say they have already returned to their everyday activities. So let's explore what Americans are resuming and still avoiding.
• Biggest Winners:
• Concerts: According to Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), the largest concert producer in the US, 2022 attendance is over +20% higher than in 2019. Moreover, Pollstar data shows that among the top 100 tours in the first half of 2022, the average number of tickets sold was +6% higher than the same period in 2019. Unlike live sports, most live music has no at-home alternative. And this has probably led to pent-up demand. 
• Weddings: Market researcher The Wedding Report projects that 2.5M couples will get married in 2022. That's roughly +15% higher than an average year. Certainly, much of this rise is due to postponed weddings during lockdowns and case spikes. 
• Sports: Sports fans are returning to stadiums. MLB attendance has risen over +66% YoY and is projected to end the season at 95% of 2019 levels. And NFL attendance during the 2021 season was slightly higher than in 2019. People are also continuing to play outdoor recreational sports. According to the Sports and Fitness Industry Association, between 2020 and 2022, participation rose in golf by +25%, tennis +28%, skateboarding +32%, and pickleball +39%. (See "America Goes Fishing" and "Golf Climbs in Popularity.")
• Doctors' Offices: According to the American Society of Plastic Surgeons, 76% of plastic surgeons claim demand in 2022 has been higher than in 2019. (See “Pandemic Spurs Plastic Surgery.”) Yet telehealth visits have fallen from 7% (as a share of all medical visits) in the spring of 2020 to 5% in July 2022. This share is expected to drop further as states reinstate cross-state telehealth restrictions waived during the pandemic. 
• Biggest Losers: 
• Theaters: According to TRG Arts, attendance at plays and symphonies is down -32% from 2019. The demographic for this entertainment skews older and tends to be more worried about Covid-19 than younger Americans. As for the movies, Comscore data show that the domestic box office grossed $5.32B between Jan-Aug 2022. That's $2.41B less than the same period in 2019. (See “(Don’t) Meet Me at the Movies.”) 
• Stores: At the pandemic's beginning, many people switched to online shopping. And brick-and-mortar stores still haven't recovered. (See “Retail in a Post-Pandemic World.”) By all accounts, live shopping in 2021 was lower than it was in 2019. And this year, it's lower still--perhaps due to falling negative real income growth and a slowing economy. According to the Placer.ai Mall Index, August visits to outdoor shopping malls were down by -2.3% YoY, indoor malls -4.2%, outlet malls -8.1%, clothing stores -10.1%, and department stores -11.3%. 
• Restaurants: According to the National Restaurant Association, 63% of restaurant revenue came from takeout prior to the pandemic. During lockdowns, that soared to 90%. And today, it's still roughly 80%. (See “Eating at Home Is Here to Stay.”) Moreover, 84% of Americans say they are eating out less due to inflation.