I have not been using the CDC's mortality data as much as I would like because they are very clearly having troubles down there in Atlanta. Reporting dates get skipped and deaths reassigned without a pattern and an explanation. Nonetheless, as we stand at the cusp of another jobs report, it is sill important to keep track of how the forces of sickness, disability and mortality may affect the workforce. Since the end of July 750k people have died in excess of the 2014-19 baseline. There are about 2M more people on disability than there were at the start of the pandemic.
Deaths from COVID - and recall that FEMA pays for funerals so there are economic incentives for dying from that disease versus others that may afflict you - are about where they were in July 2021 before the booster madness really began.
Hospitalization are no longer showing the tight relationship to deaths as was once the case. They are elevated, however. Given the financial stress hospitals have been under due to labor costs, we must first consider coding practices. Even though much of the CARES Act money has dried up, incentives such as the Medicare add-on and the waiver of cost-sharing persist. Other explanations include better care and milder disease.
Let me know what you think.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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