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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - March 10, 2011


As I said in yesterday’s Early Look (Under Attack), the rose-tinted view that has driven the S&P to current levels, up 4.96% year-to-date, is becoming more and more difficult to justify.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -1.37% downside to 1302 and 1.06% upside to 1334.

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 a.m.: Jobless claims, est. 376k, prior 386k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Trade balance, est. (-$41.5b), prior (-$40.6b)
  • 9 a.m.: Fed’s consumer advisory council hosts meeting
  • 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg consumer confort index, prior (-39.3)
  • 10 a.m.: Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage
  • 10:30 a.m.: EIA Natural Gas storage
  • 1 p.m.: $13b 30-year bond reopening
  • 2 p.m.: Monthly budget statement   

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • NATO defense ministers scheduled to meet in Brussels today and tomorrow to discuss, possibly decide on alliance involvement in Libya 
  • Ontario Securities Commission Chairman Howard Wetston scheduled to speak in hearing to review proposed sale of TMX Group to LSE
  • Japan’s Tokyo Stock Exchange Group plans to hold merger discussions with Osaka Securities Exchange
  • Galleon Group founder Raj Rajaratnam’s insider trading trial continue.
  • President Obama is seeking to reshape federal government; plan may include folding U.S. Trade Representative’s office into Commerce Department
  • Spain’s credit rating cut one level to Aa2 by Moody’s on bank bailout costs 
  • Barclays, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo said to host lender meeting to discuss Jarden debt refinancing   

PERFORMANCE:


For the second day we have 5 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 9 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.  The four sectors that are positive on both TRADE and TREND are XLY, XLP, XLE and XLE.

  • One day: Dow (0.01%), S&P (0.14%), Nasdaq (0.51%), Russell 2000 (0.42%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow (0.11%), S&P (0.54%), Nasdaq (1.10%), Russell (0.27%)
  • Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +5.49%, S&P +4.96%, Nasdaq +3.73%, Russell +4.79%
  • Sector Performance: - Materials (1.62%), Energy (0.69%), Tech (0.41%), Industrials (0.22%), Financials (0.1%), Healthcare +0.15%, Consumer Disc +0.23%, Consumer Spls +0.5%, Utilities +1.1%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -152 (-1710)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 871.20 (-13.11%)
  • VIX:  20.22 +2.02% YTD PERFORMANCE: +13.92%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.27 from 1.55 (+46.34%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


Treasuries were stronger yesterday on Libya concerns and a better 10-year note auction.

  • TED SPREAD: 22.23 +0.406 (1.860%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.10% -0.01%
  • 10-Year: 3.48 from 3.56
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.78 from 2.83

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 360.23 -0.24% YTD: +8.24%  
  • Oil: 104.38 +0.61%; YTD: +12.09% (trading -0.30% in the AM)
  • COPPER: 421.25 -2.90%; YTD: -5.95% (trading -0.77% in the AM)  
  • GOLD: 1,429.60 +0.12%; YTD: +0.42% (trading +0.40% in the AM)  

COMMODITY HEADLINES:

  • Oil fell for a second day in New York after supplies surged at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark grade. 
  • Gasoline inventories tumbled 5.94 million barrels to 229.2 million, the biggest decline since September 2008, according to the department. Stockpiles were forecast to drop 1.5 million barrels. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, fell 3.98 million barrels to 155.2 million, the lowest level since June. 
  • Gold and silver rose for the third time in four sessions as mounting tension in Libya and higher energy costs boosted demand for precious metals as an investment haven and an inflation hedge.
  • Copper futures fell to the lowest in more than two months on concern that demand will wane as higher energy costs slow the global economy.  Copper stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange have jumped 22 percent from last year’s low on Dec. 10.
  • Arabica coffee extended a rally to the highest price since May 1997 on speculation that global supplies won’t satisfy demand.
  • The U.S. cattle herd is the smallest since 1958 as beef exports surged 19 percent in 2010 to about 2.3 billion pounds (1.04 million metric tons), according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Cattle prices have jumped 27 percent in the past year, fueled by a global economic recovery that is boosting meat demand in emerging economies, including China.
  • PepsiCo Inc. is raising prices for its Tropicana juice line by as much as 8% after record cold temperatures slashed this season's orange crop, the company said.

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3900 +0.06% (trading -0.40% in the AM)
  • DOLLAR: 76.721 -0.10% (trading +0.36% in the AM) 

EUROPEAN MARKETS:

  • FTSE 100: (0.93%); DAX (0.76%); CAC 40 (0.64%)
  • Major indices are lower as fighting continues in Libya and Moody's downgrade of Spain's sovereign debt rating one notch to Aa2 from Aa1.
  • Moody's said it expects Spain's bank restructuring will cost more than the government currently expects, "leading to a further increase in the public-debt ratio."
  • Bank of England keeps asset plan and interest rates steady.

ASIAN MARKTES:

  • Nikkei (1.47%); Hang Seng (0.82%); Shanghai Composite (1.51%)
  • Regional indices followed Wall Street and closed lower on concerns about Libya, with the situation exacerbated by disappointing macroeconomic data.
  • Japan fell on futures selling spurred by higher oil prices.  Japan was led lower by weaker exporters as the yen rose.
  • Seoul rose after the Bank of Korea raised interest rates by 25bps to 3%.
  • Property developer’s dragged Hong Kong lower.
  • Weak financials weighed on the Shanghai Composite.
  • Japan Feb domestic CGPI +1.7% y/y vs cons +1.8%. Q4 revised real annualized GDP (1.3%) vs prelim (1.1%)
  • China Feb trade balance ($7.3B) vs cons $3.9B
  • Australia down 1.43% February unemployment 5.0%, net job creation (10,100) vs cons +20K

 Howard Penney

Managing Director

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - setup