Today we rounded out the series on implications for eroding confidence in PFE's COVID Vaccinations. I shaved about $10B off consensus assuming the next few months go well enough. But when you have a leading pediatrician arguing against boosters; Scandinavian countries deciding the shots are only useful for people 50 and over, and the U.K. directing its resources to focused protection, things might not turn out exactly as we plan for today. And then there is the myocarditis debate....
Link to replay here.
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Timestamps: 0:00 - 5:50 - Introduction, Recap and Overview of Vaccine Politics; Risk to Vaccine Revenue and Hard to Merge Your Way Out of It. 5:50 - 8:43 - Revenue by Drug Franchise; Concentrated Portfolio 8:43 - 11:38 - Limited Value of Vaccines Means Uptake Driven by Mandates, Requirements 11:38 - 14:23 - EU and Emerging Markets Uptake and Flatlining Demand 14:23 - 17:23 - US Market and Contracts; Revenue Needs to Come in for 2023 17:23 - 20:08 - Developed Europe has More Problems to Solve; Reduce TAM to Over 65; Changing Political Environment 20:08 -20:56 - Developed Rest of the World; Not So Cozy With Vax NGOs 20:56 - 27:45 - COVAX is Mostly EU and USA Supported; Flat to Declining Demand from Emerging Markets 27:45 - 29:53 - Revised Vaccine Revenues for Model ~12M v. 16M 29:53 - 32:33 - Paxlovid, Reduced Demand and Revenue ~ 4.5B 32:33 - 35:16 - Delay in Commercialization; Price in Private Sector 35:16 - 38:58 - Balance of Portfolio; Moves with Macro Trends; Development of mRNA Drugs; 38:58 - 48:47 - What if Things Don't Go Well |
Let me know if you have any questions.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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