It is only a matter of time. Whether due to a loss of funding or the eventual recognition US vaccination policy outlier status, the COVID-19 vaccine gravy train must come to an end. The follow-up question is how does PFE come up with the "$25B in risk adjusted revenue" they promised? Or to simplify things, because not even the smart people at Morgan Stanley's conference seemed to know what that meant, how does a $40B/year company become a $100B permanently?
It it even possible?
About 80% of revenue is accounted for by seven drugs, two of those COVID related. Without meaningful government contracts, PFE's growth looks an awful lot like the lazy PPI curve, dependent mostly on price increases. Sure, M & A is a possibility but can it fill a hole that big in light of all the anti-trust pressure?
The experience of COVAX, the increasingly more restrictive policies in Europe and the U.K. tells us there probably won't be meaningful government contracts. Beside, it appear Europe has bigger fish to fry this winter.
Join us next week as we cover all the problems COVID-19-related revenue brings in 2023.
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Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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