RESTAURANT INSIGHTS | Idea Hunt Today, DRI - 2022 09 23 6 12 51

Idea Hunt Today 

We are hosting an Idea Hunt call for Restaurants and Consumer Staples Today at 12:30 PM ET.
 

CALL DETAILS:

  • Date & Time:  Friday, September 23rd @ 12:30 PM ET
  • Webcast & Slides: CLICK HERE 
  • Add Call Details to Outlook Calendar: CLICK HERE

We are hunting for longs and shorts where our estimates differ materially from consensus expectations and the multiple could be re-rated. We will present our analysis after a further vetting on a handful of companies. Our best ideas often are sourced from vetted Idea Hunt companies.

The topics we will cover include:

  • How to be positioned in Restaurants and Consumer Staples in Quad 4.
  • Will the food scare have a lasting impact on Wendy's (WEN)?
  • Can Toast (TOST) take more share as restaurants look to drive sales and automate functions? Can the stock perform in a tech meltdown?
  • How long can Bowlero (BOWL) create value through bowling center acquisitions?
  • Is Celsius Energy (CELH) a disrupter in the $60B energy drinks category? How long can it continue to add $300M in revenue annually?
  • Haleon's (HLN) shares have stumbled out of the gate, does that represent an opportunity to invest in the spin-off?
  • Can Sovos Brands (SOVO) continue to create value by plugging acquisitions into its playbook, or should the strategy adjust?

DRI 

When companies resort to benchmarking themselves to 2019, it is likely not good news. On the earnings, call management said that Olive Garden's average weekly sales were 101% of pre-COVID levels. The concept's average check is up 10% from 2019, so traffic is down 9%. The declining traffic can be attributed to management's decision to slow discounting at Olive Garden. If sales continue to slow, will OG discounting come back? LongHorn average weekly sales were 126% of pre-COVID levels, with the check-up at 15%, so that concept is doing better. The company said it is seeing softness with consumers from households making less than $50,000 a year but seeing strength with guests and higher incomes. Like most casual dining companies, the company's last year's earnings were inflated, and now inflation is pressuring profit margins. Guidance margins for getting better from here and growing versus last year's back half of FY23 come across as aggressive.

I found this quote from the CEO interesting.  He is effectively saying that the company does not want to consider in its current guidance the possibility that a recession is looming and and all consumers will be impacted:

"So we think that that is a broad-based benefit for us because we have a portfolio of brands that kind of run the spectrum of the consumer. And so when one segment of the population isn't doing as well, the other segment is, then we are still okay. And then if it flips the other way, we're okay. And so right now, just one segment of the population is being hurt a little bit more by inflation than others. And the good news is we've got brands that aren't impacted by that."

I have heard of having a portfolio of brands for different cuisines but different consumers?

RESTAURANT INSIGHTS | Idea Hunt Today, DRI - 2022 09 23 6 13 24