Idea Hunt TodayWe are hosting an Idea Hunt call for Restaurants and Consumer Staples Today at 12:30 PM ET. |
|
We are hunting for longs and shorts where our estimates differ materially from consensus expectations and the multiple could be re-rated. We will present our analysis after a further vetting on a handful of companies. Our best ideas often are sourced from vetted Idea Hunt companies. The topics we will cover include:
|
DRI
When companies resort to benchmarking themselves to 2019, it is likely not good news. On the earnings, call management said that Olive Garden's average weekly sales were 101% of pre-COVID levels. The concept's average check is up 10% from 2019, so traffic is down 9%. The declining traffic can be attributed to management's decision to slow discounting at Olive Garden. If sales continue to slow, will OG discounting come back? LongHorn average weekly sales were 126% of pre-COVID levels, with the check-up at 15%, so that concept is doing better. The company said it is seeing softness with consumers from households making less than $50,000 a year but seeing strength with guests and higher incomes. Like most casual dining companies, the company's last year's earnings were inflated, and now inflation is pressuring profit margins. Guidance margins for getting better from here and growing versus last year's back half of FY23 come across as aggressive.
I found this quote from the CEO interesting. He is effectively saying that the company does not want to consider in its current guidance the possibility that a recession is looming and and all consumers will be impacted:
"So we think that that is a broad-based benefit for us because we have a portfolio of brands that kind of run the spectrum of the consumer. And so when one segment of the population isn't doing as well, the other segment is, then we are still okay. And then if it flips the other way, we're okay. And so right now, just one segment of the population is being hurt a little bit more by inflation than others. And the good news is we've got brands that aren't impacted by that."
I have heard of having a portfolio of brands for different cuisines but different consumers?