“Trust me, you need to cash it now.”
- Chuck Liddell
That’s what the American Irishman (actually they call him The Ice Man) told Tim Kennedy after Kennedy won his 1st Middleweight Championship. The check was for $5,000. Then Liddell took Kennedy to California Pizza Kitchen for dinner.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
If you haven't done so already, trust me, you need to raise more cash now.
Instead of explaining why (I’ve been doing that for the last 9+ months), I want you to take a few deep breaths this morning and consider the ramifications of super-short-term-and-Fed-induced US stock market hyper-ventilations.
This isn’t a story about uniquely American Scars And Stripes. That’s Kennedy’s courageous and “Unapologetically American Story Of Fighting The Taliban, UFC Warriors.” This is a true story of American cowardice.
In what world did the Founding Fathers envision an unelected man with unlimited power over the US economy and her capital markets? Why do so many in the Establishment worship at his alter? Why do they trust he can land the plane?
I know that these questions will trigger some of you. Good. It should. If you believe in every bit of liberty and freedom that the Tim Kennedy’s of our world continue to fight for, why do you sit idle and hostage to the US Federal Reserve?
- They thought inflation was “transitory” and didn’t raise rates when they should have
- Now they don’t get what tightening into a #Quad4 Recession means, but they’ll keep doing it anyway
That’s all I am going to say about that this morning. Do whatever you want about it. I did my small part by asking you The Questions.
I’m kind of sad and disgusted right now and don’t feel like writing anything else.
Here are the Top 3 Things I just sent to our Institutional and Macro Pro subscribers (I send this out most mornings at 6AM EST – and I sincerely thank you all for subscribing):
Fed tightening into a #Quad4 Recession continues to crash markets – no change to our risk management view on that…
- YEN – it’s a good thing the BOJ helped out US Equity Futures overnight! (SPX has a -0.92 correlation to USD on a 30day duration), but all the JPY did was bounce off the low-end of my Risk Range after USD signaled immediate-term TRADE #overbought (i.e. top-end of my Risk Range) vs. Euros, Yens, Pounds, etc. yesterday – trade it
- RATES – it’s a bone rattling -56 on the UST Yield Curve (10s minus 2s inversion) this morning – what’s signaled here? A: #Quad4 Recession, reiterated… which Powell clearly doesn’t understand, yet (but is considering while he says nothing other than what the short-end of the curve had been signaling #PAIN) – staying short the Financials (XLF)
- CRASHES – SPX moved back into #Quad4 Crash mode yesterday at -21.1% from its all-time #BubbleCap high – NASDAQ and Russell were already there and have now crashed -31% and -28%, respectively, from their #Quad2 Bubble Peaks – top-end of my Vol of Vol Risk Range for the VIX now has a 30-handle in front of it (consensus was NOT positioned for that!)
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets:
UST 30yr Yield 3.42-3.59% (bullish)
UST 10yr Yield 3.30-3.61% (bullish)
UST 2yr Yield 3.58-4.13% (bullish)
High Yield (HYG) 72.74-75.17 (bearish)
SPX 3 (bearish)
NASDAQ 11,002-11,878 (bearish)
RUT 1 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 122-134 (bearish)
Utilities (XLU) 72.02-77.50 (neutral)
Energy (XLE) 75.03-82.17 (neutral)
Shanghai Comp 3053-3210 (bearish)
Nikkei 27,103-28,611 (neutral)
DAX 12,501-13,136 (bearish)
VIX 22.93-30.08 (bullish)
USD 108.76-110.68 (bullish)
EUR/USD 0.982-1.002 (bearish)
USD/YEN 141.24-144.75 (bullish)
GBP/USD 1.123-1.161 (bearish)
CAD/USD 0.740-0.761 (bearish)
Oil (WTI) 82.12-88.45 (bearish)
Nat Gas 7.06-8.44 (bearish)
Gold 1 (bearish)
Copper 3.35-3.62 (bearish)
MSFT 230-252 (bearish)
AAPL 147-159 (bearish)
AMZN 112-127 (bearish)
META 133-153 (bearish)
GOOGL 96-106 (bearish)
NFLX 216-249 (bearish)
TSLA 281-313 (bearish)
Bitcoin 18,113-20,842 (bearish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
