NewsWire: 9/15/22
- In the first half of 2022, the number of homicides in major US cities dropped by -2% from the same period in 2021. Robberies, larcenies, and car thefts, on the other hand, increased. (The Washington Post)
- NH: Every summer, the Council on Criminal Justice releases its mid-year report on crime in America. (See “America’s Rising Crime Rate.”) Using local databases from 29 cities, they aggregate weekly crime rates for ten different offenses from January to June. And by using YoY statistical confidence intervals, they can measure how crime rates have changed in recent years.
- Topline results: Most violent crimes decreased a bit from the same period in 2021. Yet rates are still substantially higher than pre-pandemic levels. Property crimes, on the other hand, increased sharply YoY, which is a reversal from the first two years of the pandemic.
- Let’s look at specific offenses.
- The number of homicides in the first half of 2022 decreased by -2% from the same period in 2021. In absolute terms, that’s 54 fewer killings. While this slight reduction is heartening, homicides are still up +39% from 2019.
- The other two violent crimes to experience a decline were gun assaults (-6%) and domestic violence incidents (-5%). But data for these offenses were only available for 12 cities, so the sample results may be unreliable. Aggravated assault was the only violent crime to increase. Incidents rose +4% since 2021 and remain above pre-pandemic levels.
- There is still much debate about why violent crime rates remain higher than in the 2010s. In a previous NewsWire, we recapped all the prevailing theories, including increased stress levels, increased gun sales, and the Ferguson effect. (See “Homicides Spiked in 2020.”)
- Property crimes spiked in the first half of 2022. Residential burglaries rose +6% from the same period in 2021, nonresidential burglaries +8%, vehicle thefts +15%, robberies +19%, and larcenies +20%. This is a reversal from the first two years of the pandemic, when property crimes plunged. During lockdowns, there were fewer opportunities to steal as many stores were closed, fewer people were on the streets, and families were constantly in their homes. Now that life has largely returned to normal, there are more opportunities for theft.
- The share of Americans who worry about crime has risen sharply since 2020. According to an April Gallup poll, 53% worry about crime and violence a “great deal.” That’s the first time since 2016--and before that, 2001--that a majority has been so concerned.
- We wrote in a previous NewsWire that the GOP was planning to leverage public worries about crime as well as inflation to win the midterms. (See “Will Crime Be an Issue in the Midterms?”) But the Democrats are betting that voters care more about abortion and electing respectable candidates. We'll see which bets pay off.
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