RESTAURANT INSIGHTS | SBUX, Camp Pickle, FWRG (+) - 2022 09 12 16 54 19

Sbux Investor Day

Will Howard slow the Long-term growth algorithm?  

Some of the investments the company will lay out today are being spent in FY22, but there is much more to come. Some incremental investments will slow the unionization spread and provide incremental benefits for non-union stores. The union stores will need to bargain for those new benefits. Howard Schultz vows that the Starbucks union drive is "not going to be something that will significantly change the course of history at Starbucks." How much will that cost? He has also said, "he's never coming back!" The biggest question on many people's minds is whether it will Howard slow the long-term growth also for the company at today's analyst meeting. Over the next five years, SBUX will not grow EPS double digits. It might be in year two or three after coming off the remaking of the company, but at best, the company's long-term algo might be closer to 9-10%. If they don't lower the long-term growth, algo will this be an overhang for the new CEO?

Camp Pickle

I love this idea. Like many people, I'm new to Pickleball and love playing! According to Restaurant Business, Robert Thompson has a new angle for those who want to eat, drink, and play Pickleball. More competition for PLAY!

Thompson's next year plans to launch the new Camp Pickle, a 50,000- to 75,000-square-foot complex that includes a restaurant and bar alongside indoor and outdoor pickleball courts. There will be other games as well. It's one of a rapidly growing number of pickleball-and-dining facilities cropping up across the country, hoping to capitalize on what has been described as America's fastest-growing sport. Others include Chicken N Pickle, Smash Park, and Electric Pickle. Reportedly invented in 1965 and named for the creator's dog, Pickleball caught fire over the past decade. It first became popular among an older demographic, partly because it's easier on joints and can be played at all fitness levels. It is also a very social game, often played in groups of four or more. But younger players also have increasingly embraced Picklebal making the fastest growing cohort the 8-to-18 and 19-28-year olds. Currently, an estimated 5 million people play Pickleball in the U.S., a number Thompson said is projected to grow to 40 million over the next decade. That growth has created the demand for more courts.

RESTAURANT INSIGHTS | SBUX, Camp Pickle, FWRG (+) - 2022 09 13 5 05 04

FWRG Secondary

Unlike the PTLO secondary, I like FWRG.  We had a LONG idea hunt a few months ago and have some data if you want to know more. Click here for the replay.

First Watch Restaurant stock slid 8% postmarket on Monday after the firm said certain shareholders intend to offer 4.5M shares in an underwritten secondary public offering. The selling shareholders will grant underwriters a 30-day option to buy up to an additional 675K shares at the public offering price. The selling stockholders will receive all proceeds from the offering.

RESTAURANT INSIGHTS | SBUX, Camp Pickle, FWRG (+) - 2022 09 12 16 55 04