Will Demographic Decline Push China to War? NewsWire

NewsWire: 9/14/22

• In an op-ed, columnist George Will argues that China’s baby bust is making the country “ever more dangerous.” A country in decline, he says, is more inclined to be aggressive. (The Washington Post)
  
• NH: George Will is alluding to what political scientists call “the power transition theory.” I have previously discussed how policy analysts are using "power transition" to explain how perceptions of longer-term adversity could be leading both China and Russia into taking larger near-term risks. (See “Is Demographic Decline Fueling Russia's Aggression?” and “Births in China Continue to Fall.”) 
• Power transition theory argues that countries entering long-term relative decline have two significant incentives to pursue their near-term geopolitical goals more aggressively. First, such countries may perceive that they are facing a "closing window of opportunity" and need to strike sooner rather than later. Second, geopolitical success may be rewarded by a more favorable domestic outlook. And in turn, that may work to reverse the long-term negative dynamics--for example, reverse demographic decline by raising domestic morale and optimism about the future.
• Over the last decade, the CCP has become increasingly concerned about China's fertility decline. The UN now predicts China will enter negative population growth this year–in 2022. The government has responded by implementing ever-more ambitious pronatalist policies--without however any success thus far. (See "When Will China's Population Growth Go Negative?")
• Will's op-ed argues that China's demographic anxieties will push it to invade Taiwan. And, for that reason, he argues that the US needs to respond quickly by bolstering the island's defenses. 
• Of course, this may be a catch-22 response. Let's say the US embarks on a multi-year effort to turn Taiwan into a "porcupine" (a territory impervious to takeover through invasion). And let's say the US and its allies accelerate their multi-year effort to shore up the first and second island chains in the western Pacific. Such efforts could persuade China to make a "firm move" even sooner. From its perspective, the window of opportunity would be closing even faster than it was before.
• Either way, China's increasingly belligerent diplomatic and regional military posture is pushing the US to take a tougher stance against possible threats. In May, Biden offered his most forceful assertion yet: The US would militarily defend Taiwan if China attacked. This is a significant change in rhetoric from past presidents who took a more ambiguous approach. But the American public supports this attitude. In 2021, for the first time, more than half of Americans favored US military intervention if Taiwan were invaded.