The Surge in Violent Political Threats. NewsWire

NewsWire: 9/13/22

• Threats of civil war have surged online following the Mar-a-Lago raid. These were noted in a recent FBI bulletin that warned of an increase in violent threats across far-right platforms. (CBS News)
  
• NH: Fears that the United States is headed for civil war are not new. (See “Secession Sentiment Rises in America,” “America on the Verge of Civil War?” and “Growing Share of Voters Say Violence May Be ‘Justified.’”) But following the FBI’s raid of Mar-a-Lago last month, extreme rhetoric from pro-Trumpers has risen to a new level.
• The FBI/DHS issued a bulletin warning of an increase in “violent threats posted on social media against federal officials and facilities, including a threat to place a so-called dirty bomb in front of FBI Headquarters and issuing general calls for ‘civil war’ and ‘armed rebellion.’” The bulletin cited the example of Ricky Shiffer, the Ohio man who was fatally shot after he attempted to break into the FBI’s Cincinnati field office.
• Shiffer was the only person identified in the bulletin. But these threats have not been limited to lone actors. Some Republican lawmakers and candidates have also called for violence, including Florida congressional candidate Martin Hyde and state house candidate Luis Miguel. Representatives Paul Gosar, Lauren Boebert, and Marjorie Taylor Greene have demanded that the FBI be “defunded.” Others, including RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, warned the public that the FBI is out to get them.
• To most Americans, the FBI bulletin constitutes reasonably objective evidence and is therefore cause for alarm. To pro-Trump agitators, on the other hand, the FBI is a tool of the "Deep State" and nothing it publishes can be believed. Such is the depth of partisan division today in America that the two sides differ not only in convictions but also in trustworthy facts and institutions.
• The surge in online extremism comes shortly after a new survey from UC Davis showed that half of Americans (50.1%) agree at least somewhat that there will a civil war in the United States in the next several years. Fully 24.8% said that political violence would be justified “to stop an election from being stolen,” and 24.2% “to preserve an American way of life based on Western European traditions.” Another survey released early this year found that since the 1990s, the share of Americans who say that violent action against the government is never justified has plummeted from 90% to 62%.

• How should we interpret these results? Though threats and individual attacks have been escalating, civil war remains the stuff of speculation and not reality. This doesn’t mean, however, that it won’t happen. Arguably, American society remains stable because we have not yet reached the tipping point: the moment when one party feels threatened by a shift to its way of life that appears permanent.
• The American Revolution was launched over resistance to growing imperial control. The Civil War was waged over disagreements over the future of slavery and states' rights. The Russian Civil War broke out over opposition to the Bolshevik takeover. The Yugoslav Wars were fought between opposing ethnic groups over control of the country. In each of these cases, citizens believed that the opposition posed a fundamental threat to their existence.
• In Barbara F. Walter's book How Civil Wars Start, she presents two key factors that predict the risk of civil war: a weak government and a population that begins to organize into factions based on deeply rooted identities, such as ethnic or religious identity, often out of a desire for security. Once a faction is persuaded that enemies are permanently threatening its way of life through turning-point events (elections, new laws, court decisions, mobilizations) from which there is no recovery, organized and violent resistance becomes possible. Fear of reaching a point of no return is the single most frequent trigger of civil war.