“After all, Ginger Rogers did everything that Fred Astaire did. She just did it backwards and in high heels.” ~ Ann Richards
Politics. The late former Texas governor Ann Richards usually gets credit for that applause line though she always said she stole it from Linda Ellerbee. It is funny, in a way. It is also wrong.
Ginger Rogers could dance like that because Fred Astaire had one arm around what was no more than a 24-inch waist. Had Ms Rogers stubbled, Mr. Astaire would make sure only the two of them knew it.
Aside from ignoring the realities of ballroom dancing, Ann Richards,’ quip, oft repeated by the aging punditry, suggests not the long-sought equality for women, but rather, superiority.
How it became rewarding to insult half your electorate by denigrating the talents of Fred Astaire will be one for political historians, but you cannot argue with the results.
Until Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared himself willing to die for his country and Tom Cruise proved men can both cry and fly an F-18 in Top Gun: Maverick, the archetype of men – fearless, hard-working and protective – was decidedly out of political fashion in the U.S.
The mystery is why it worked for so long. Certainly, women are a very dependable voting block and are easily (but not accurately) associated with a few high-profile litmus test issues that would demand attention from office-seekers.
Yet, productivity – economic and political – depend on working collaboratively. Sometimes that means dancing backward in high heels and trusting Fred not to let you fall.
Which sounds pretty nice.
Policy. As Nicholas Eberstadt writes in “Education and Men without Work,” disability policies have been a driver of declines in Labor Force Participation Rates for men, especially those that are unmarried and without a high school diploma.
The LFP rate for men exited the Great Financial Crisis at 72.3% and declined to 69% in February 2020. Women exited the GFC with 59.2% LFP rate which declined to 57.9% in February 2020.
While federal disability benefits are never lavish, they are frequently paired with state supplemental payments and access to health benefits through Medicare and Medicaid. The latter programs, of course, helped turn the unemployed into the unemployable with freely available opioid prescriptions.
Policy priorities continue to double down on workless men. The American Rescue Plan expanded disability eligibility for “long-COVID” which remains unstudied and undefined. School closure policies accelerated and/or increased drop-out rates. Learning losses documented by the National Assessment of Educational Progress in a release last week are likely to aggravate the number of people without a high school diploma.
Yet, the labor supply remains so tight it is unlikely America’s employers are going to tolerate much more. Nor should policy makers. Labor supply has proven to be a significant driver of inflation.
Power. Enough with the flexibility. Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Jefferies want their employee back at their desks.
Empty out the beach house.
Rent the ski house.
A tie!!??
More seriously, labor productivity in the U.S. fell off sharply in 4Q 2021 and 1Q 2022. America’s employers are paying more and getting less. A new world order that reverses globalization, charges interest and cost more to run, means inverting that relationship.
It isn’t as harsh as it sounds. Productivity gains are often found through innovation. Innovation is often driven by creative collaboration. I am sure some people can be successful with a good zoom call each week but that is not the case for everyone.
Nor is it desirable. I count among my life-long friends, people I met working. In an office. In person. Technology is great but nothing replaces laughing until you hurt with someone you are lucky enough to share part of the day with.
Have a wonderful Labor Day.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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