In 2021, U.S. Life Expectancy Fell Yet Again. NewsWire

NewsWire: 9/6/22

• According to provisional estimates, U.S. life expectancy fell for the second year in a row in 2021. Life expectancy was 76.1, down from 77.0 the year before. (National Center for Health Statistics)
  
• NH: According to provisional data, U.S. life expectancy fell for the second consecutive year in 2021. Americans’ life expectancy declined by 0.9 years to 76.1. In all, the cumulative decline since 2019 is a loss of nearly three years. (See “Final 2020 Data Show U.S. Life Expectancy Fell by 1.8 Years.”) Americans can now expect to live as long as they did in 1996. Life expectancy peaked all the way back in 2014, seven years ago.

• To put the 2.7-year decline since 2019 in perspective, the last time life expectancy declined this steeply was in World War II.

• The latest reduction in life expectancy was particularly dramatic among Native Americans. Last year, it dropped by 1.9 years to 65.2. White Americans saw the second-largest decline of one year to 76.4. Among blacks, the decline was 0.7 years; among Hispanics, it was 0.2 years. This was in sharp contrast to 2020: Blacks and Hispanics were hit hard in the early phase of the pandemic and saw much bigger reductions that year in life expectancy than whites.
• As was the case in 2020, Covid-19 accounted for the bulk of the increase in deaths (50%). Unintentional injuries, which are largely drug overdoses, came in second at 16%. Slight increases in heart disease, chronic liver disease, and suicide also contributed. Nearly a quarter (24.9%) of the increase in deaths was attributed to “residual” (i.e., other) causes. Offsetting the decline were sharp decreases in influenza-related deaths, deaths from chronic respiratory diseases, and Alzheimer’s.
• It won’t be until the final data on mortality by exact cause is released that we will have a higher-resolution explanation for exactly why the 2021 death rate rose YoY. But I suspect that we’re starting to observe the overall mortality drag that is attributable to Long Covid, one that will last for at least the next few years.
• We know that having had Covid-19 significantly increases people’s risk of dying of other causes over the longer term. (See "Long Covid Casts a Long Shadow.") It is likely that this is showing up as increased mortality from other kinds of diseases. Some life insurance companies claim to be seeing this. (See “Life Insurers See Jump in Non-Covid-19 Deaths”).
• Long Covid refers to a very broad spectrum of post-viral syndromes. Having no unique identifying marker, Long Covid mortality manifests itself in various forms of death--including diseases of the heart and circulatory systems; stroke and thrombosis; and failure of lungs, kidneys, and liver. The best chance we have of inferring Long Covid as a cause of death would be a detailed study of the pattern of disease mortality from one year to the next. We'll be tracking such inferential studies as more detailed data continue to come in.