• It's Coming...

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Raising our February rev target to HK$18-19BN

As a result of very strong volume during the Chinese New Year celebration and surprising follow through in the last week, we are upping our February forecast.  We are now projecting full month total gaming revenue of HK$18.0-19.0 billion (32-40%) versus our previous estimate of HK$17.0-18.0 billion.  Table revenues were HK$14.0 through February 20th implying a surprisingly strong post CNY table revenue per day of HK$609 million.

In terms of market share, MGM had a huge week, pushing its February table share up to 11.1% (it was only 9.4% as of last week), in-line with its 3 month average.  LVS lost a lot of share in the past week, down from 18.3% as of 2/13 to 16.8% through 2/20.

MACAU: NICE FOLLOW THROUGH FROM CNY - MACAU333

Galaxy slipped further back from its poor showing as of last week and this appears to be a combination of lagging VIP win % and a lack of hotel room capacity to take advantage of the busy period. This will obviously change with the opening of Galaxy Macau.

There have been a few changes to the gaming floors around town the past week.  Sands removed their only Craps tables and the Venetian has increased to 3 craps tables.  Sands are also down 115 slot machines as a large area directly beside the stage is cordoned off and under renovations.

MGM are also down about 80 slots while renovations continue at the back of the casino.  Also being renovated is a VIP room right at the back of the casino beside the entrance from the shopping area.  All tables have been removed and work is in progress.  The Lions bar remains untouched and curtained off.

The renovations at Encore are complete with 4 additional gaming rooms over 4 floors replacing corner suites.  Each room has 6 tables, 4 in the main area and two separate VIP rooms with one table each for a total of 24.