The XYZ variant will probably get the credit for increased hospitalizations and, possibly, a solid 2Q for HCA and THC, but the reality is the health system is shaking off some - certainly not all - the impacts of the pandemic. Labor costs have stabilized, patients have worked their way through the care journey of physicians visits, tests and other activities that often end with a hospitalization. These recent trends are evident in a more robust employment outlook, a positive Purchasing Manager's Index, and now CPI.
Yes, Medicare is still paying an add-on for COVID positive cases even if the patient is not being treated for COVID symptoms. Commercial insurers have gotten savvier even if they continue to waive cost-sharing through the Public Health Emergency. The fact is people have gotten sicker during the public health emergency. It is the only conclusion you can draw from persistently high mortality that has little to do with a COVID positive lab test.
It is a refreshing and welcome sign that health care is adapting to new constraints and overcoming some bad policy to get the job done. That may include triaging patients by payer, among other techniques only whispered about, but that is to be expected when your chief partner in health care shreds the social contract.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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